Seahawks vs. Lions Recommended Bet

Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1PM EDT
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: Fox

Point Spread: SEA +6/DET -6 (Bovada)
Over/Under Total: 50

The Seattle Seahawks come to Ford Field on Sunday for an NFC showdown with the Detroit Lions. Both teams enter this game at 1-2, but it’s funny how 1-2 can register differently with various contexts. For the Seahawks they’re trying to soldier through this post-Wilson rebuilding period, while the Lions are seen as the more upstart team. Still, with a 3-0 record ATS, the fact is the Lions have been a little better than advertised and face a winnable spot here at home on Sunday, despite a 28-24 loss to the Vikings last week. The Seahawks are licking their wounds after losing to the Falcons, 27-23, on Sunday, their second straight loss leading up to this long road trip in a tricky spot. Who can bring us home the cover on Sunday?

The Ying and Yang of Detroit

It’s understandable how one would look at this game and fancy Detroit at home on the basis of superior offensive firepower. With 95 points in three games, they’re making it hard for teams to cover spreads. Anything similar to that output this week should be enough. Jared Goff might not be that great, but this offense works behind an excellent offensive line. When D’Andre Swift isn’t getting it done, Jamaal Williams can chip in and did on Sunday with two TDs. Amon-Ra St. Brown has elevated to near-elite receiver status. And on days where he’s covered, they have a deep receiving crew to bridge the gap and a good TE in Hockenson. It’s hard not to note the strides made on this side of the ball, as offensive fireworks are no longer an exception with this offense. Not that the Seattle “D” has been horrible, but a home spot for Detroit’s offense here doesn’t seem so disadvantageous.

The flip side of that equation is that no team has allowed more points than Detroit so far this season. We’re seeing opponents doing some pretty big things against this group. Teams like Philly that want to run the ball can do that fairly easily, while more aerially-inclined offenses don’t meet much resistance when playing the Lions. That comes with obvious drawbacks, a more hidden one being that the failings on “D” can take the offense out of character as they have to move more away from the run. With their aerial talent, it’s not a totally lost cause. Still, this offense will end up being better off if allowed to form more organically and not always playing in a reactionary way as set forth by a defense that isn’t holding up its end of the deal. Against what appears to be a more-manageable Seahawks offense, could we see a little better this week?

Looking at Seattle a Different Way

If comparing Seattle to their glory period, it’s not going to hold up. Geno Smith at quarterback just looks wrong on the surface, like he doesn’t belong. They have big-time receiver talent with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, with a QB who won’t be able to make full use of it. Their RB duties are down to a guy who, in several years, has had a few good games in Rashaad Penny. That offensive line is still a problem area. The menace they used to have on defense has disappeared, with a ho-hum secondary and a front that is duck soup for opposing rushing attacks, with a pass-rush that seems almost invisible at times. Combine that with their overall trajectory as a team, and people can maybe go a little overboard in low-rating what is, in fact, a bad team.

At the same time, I think they’re a well-coached team that will get a lot out of what they have. One would have to admit that Geno Smith has been at least a mild surprise with how well he’s played at times. He might not be able to extract big games from Lockett and Metcalf as Wilson was, but he’s still getting something out of them. Penny is in a hard spot behind this line, but he hasn’t looked bad through three games and can be counted on to have some good showings moving forward. Sure, they haven’t looked good, and this is a road game against a team that has shown far more offensive firepower than they have. Still, if there were a spot where you could extract a good offensive day from the Seahawks, why not this one? Detroit hasn’t shown that they can stop much of anything and other than some good energy and occasional big plays here and there, are quite porous.

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Take the Home Team

I don’t question whether Seattle can achieve some success offensively this week. Smith should be able to work well against a dicey Detroit secondary, and one of the good individual Seattle players could make a big contribution this week. But to put this all on Detroit’s defense and basically put oneself in a position to rely on Seattle’s defense in this spot might not be the stance to take. For Detroit to thrive this week, they more or less need to keep doing what they’ve been doing while hoping they can tighten up on defense, going against what might be an easier opponent this week. Seattle needs to hope for a lot more, and I think they need more stars to line up this week than the Lions do. I’ll take Detroit at home.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions minus 6 points.