Seahawks vs. 49ers Prediction: Are the 49ers Overrated?

Seattle Seahawks (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 4:05PM EST
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Fox

The Seattle Seahawks come to Santa Clara for a big week 11 NFC West showdown with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. The NFC West division is still up for grabs, with Arizona currently in first with a 6-4 record, with neither of these two teams very far behind. Still, neither team can really afford to start absorbing losses now. For the Seahawks, that’s been the norm of late, with five losses in their last six games, spoiling a nice start to the season. Before the bye last week, they suffered a painful 26-20 loss to the Rams in overtime and really need a positive development. Coming on the road against a more-intact 49ers team looking to also make up ground might not be the greatest spot. On Sunday, a last-second field goal helped seal the Niners’ 23-20 win over Tampa Bay, as the defending NFC Champions poke their noses above .500 for the first time this season.

What the First Game Tells Us

San Francisco’s 36-24 win over the Seahawks in Seattle in week 6 is hardly a roadmap, but does provide some context. The 49ers ran off to a big lead, with Seattle scrambling to close the gap late. The 49ers’ defense was big, with three turnovers and two picks of Seattle quarterback Geno Smith. Brock Purdy was efficient on the day, with the SF run-game doing a lot of damage. Now they have Christian McCaffrey back, which sweetens that aspect of this matchup for them. The outlook is not so rosy for a Seattle team that got very little done overall with their run-game in this matchup last month. Purdy was also able to connect for big plays with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, throwing three TDs on the day. And while the Seattle offense had some success as they tried to play catch-up, Smith and DK Metcalf, who they’re hoping is back for this game, were not at their best.

Hope for Seattle?

Just off the bat, this is a Seattle team where you’re maybe more comfortable taking them in this role, where they’re getting almost a TD as of press-time. They’re underdogs and that’s where they seem most-dangerous. Trying to get them to win is hard enough without ascribing any point-margins to it. These are spots where some of the things they do well can count more. It’s a divisional game where the urgency is ratcheting up for both teams. For the Niners, they’re defending conference champions and the spurt after a slow start where they had many legitimate excuses for it to not go well is more expected. But the Seahawks have an agenda, too.

One would assume the week off leaves the Seahawks in better health, chastening themselves to make something of the rest of the season. It’s not often a team can dump 5 of 6 and still be in the mix. That won’t be lost on the Seahawks and while it’s a road spot, it’s a familiar divisional setting. While Metcalf was awful in the first go-around, one would have to guess as of now that he’d play. They almost have to figure out something to get the run-game to resonate better, though this isn’t a spot where you figure Kenneth Walker would go bonkers. Still, maybe they can do some of the things they did in the second half that took a runaway win for the 49ers and turned it into a bit of a sweat towards the end of the game.

Are the 49ers Ready to Roll?

One would think this is where we see the 49ers come together and make up for lost ground. And sure, they just got McCaffrey back last week, so it hasn’t had a chance to really resonate, but last week’s FG-win over the Bucs wasn’t exactly awe-inspiring, needing some things to fall their way to get the narrow win against a depleted but gutty Tampa team. It’s just that maybe some caution should be shown for those who think the 2023 Niners team is going to just magically show up again. Not that they can’t get better over the course of the season and peak for the playoffs. I just don’t know if it’s simply a matter of getting CMC back up to speed and then all is well.

Since beating Seattle, it’s been a grind for a Niners team that is still finding things to be more of a slog than normal. They lost badly to the Chiefs, had a one-score win over a down-and-out Cowboys team, and then last week’s walk-off field goal win over Tampa. Now, they’re supposed to take off? In a tough divisional setting against a desperate Seattle team coming off the bye? It’s easy to see the storyline and understand it, but I’m not so sure I’m buying in completely.

Take the Points

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. San Francisco was able to have their way in this first game and that was in Seattle. Even though the Seahawks made a nice run, they never quite looked the part of a winner in that game. But between Seattle’s urgency and the difficulty San Francisco is finding in rediscovering their peak-form, it’s not too hard to picture a halfway-competitive divisional game where having close to a TD in buffer might come in handy. I’ll take Seattle in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks plus 6.5 points.