San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Point Spread Pick
San Francisco 49ers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Week 2 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 4:05PM EDT
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewoood, California
TV: Fox
Point Spread: SF -8/LAR +8
Money Line: San Francisco -350, Los Angeles +275
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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The San Francisco 49ers make the in-state trip down south to take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in an NFC West showdown at SoFi Stadium. Each of these division rivals won on Sunday, both putting the spread to shame, as San Fran routed Pittsburgh, 30-7, as one point favorites, and the Rams beat Seattle, 30-13, as 4-point dogs. The Rams now make their home opener, but standing in their way is the clear class of the NFC West, and on Sunday, the Niners served notice that they mean business. Can the Rams come up with the right answers, or do we see a return to earth this week?
Good Start for the Rams or a Mirage?
If anything, the Rams’ thumping of a Seattle team gives room for pause. The general feeling was that their offense had seen better days, and they’re reduced to Cooper Kupp, who starts the season on IR. A cleaning house on defense left them with what appeared to be Aaron Donald and just a bunch of other guys. Maybe we overlooked some things, namely QB Matthew Stafford, along with head coach Sean McVay. Maybe they can keep coming up with something, dial up the right formula, and tap into some undiscovered talent. Getting two 100-yard performances from receivers Tutu Atwell and rookie Puka Nacua shows something like that could be in the cards.
Still, one week windows are, in fact, just a one-game time period. And maybe we will continue to see the Rams in a more-promising light than what was anticipated, especially as they start the season in-division with two games. Typically, even down Rams teams show surprising resistance within the NFC West. For them to hold it together without Cooper Kupp would be amazing in a way, but maybe we spent too much time worrying about what they no longer have and not enough focus on what remains.
Bad News for Potential Rams Backers this Week
Divisional toughness aside, since winning the Bowl in ’21, San Francisco has handled the Rams twice, covering the spread both times. The Rams are dealing with some bad matchup components across all levels of play. You wonder if guys like Nick Bosa, with an extra week under his belt, and this attacking Niners’ defense will make more of a stink of the state of the Rams’ offensive line. An aging Stafford will find himself in more peril, maybe not as able to zero in on what is a depreciated receiver package without Kupp. And while the Rams scored three times on the ground last week, they still were under 100 total yards despite 40 runs. That might not improve much against the 49ers’ defense this week.
I expect to see Stafford more toward the higher end on pass attempts this week. They have had almost no success recently running against the Niners, and it’s doubtful Cam Akers or Kyren Wilson will do much to reverse that. That leaves the aforementioned Nacua and Atwell, along with whatever TE Tyler Higbee can deliver, along with inconsistent contributors like Van Jefferson. It just doesn’t bode well, especially when you see what is coming at them this week from the opposing offense.
A fine week one showing against an off-key Seattle squad might provide false security against a San Fran offense that was really clicking in Week one. There is so much that can victimize what is a bare-bones defense with a real no-name quality to it outside of Donald. Brock Purdy served notice that he’s back last week. Christian McCaffrey can put together big runs and catch passes. Aerially, they have a monster tight end in George Kittle, along with viable receivers like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. They’re well-coached and can be pretty tough to beat on a week-to-week basis.
Range of Expectations
It’s not crazy for those who expect the Rams to latch onto something that makes it so they surpass their overall expectations, at least to the point where they’re holding divisional teams close at home. I don’t want to be caught napping on the angle that the Rams just hold up better in familiar surroundings, in terms of locale and opponent. It’s a level of hopefulness that wouldn’t really exist if they were at a part of their schedule where they’re playing teams like the Bengals, the Cowboys, or the Eagles.
I still expect certain football realities to surface this week, namely a defensive front-seven for the Niners that have a spot where they can potentially dominate. Combine that with Brock Purdy leaning on his line and running-game while spraying it around to a variety of reliable targets, and it’s going to put a lot of pressure on an LA offense without their best weapon. As the analysis carries on, it becomes harder to subscribe to the notion of a hidden winning recipe for the Rams or how tough they will be within their division. Matchup-wise, they could be in some trouble this week.
Lay the Points
It’s never that comfortable of a feeling laying this many points in a divisional game, especially on the road. I just think the efficiency in which the SF offense works, in addition to their stoutness and playmaking on defense, could be all wrong for Stafford and the Rams. Stafford is still talented enough to make things happen with his arm, but by the second half, the narrowness of their routes will lead to the 49ers creating a little separation, as they get the win and cover in Inglewood.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 8 points.
