San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns Week 6 Pick ATS

San Francisco 49ers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Week 6 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: SF -5/CLE +5 (Wagerweb – Offers 19 point NFL teasers!)

Money Line: SF -230, CLE +190

Over/Under Total: 39.5

The San Francisco 49ers come to Ohio for a Week 6 faceoff with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The Browns got last week off with a bye that came after a 28-3 loss to the Ravens dropped them to 2-2. They look to get healthier with the time off, with QB Deshaun Watson returning to the fold. They host a 5-0 Niners team that is coming off a rollicking 42-10 win over the Cowboys on Monday Night Football and have looked to be among the best in the league. Can the Browns put up a fight at home, or will we see the Niners continue to dominate?

Better Spot for Cleveland Than it Appears?

There are some things on the surface that make you question whether we will see a 49ers team in peak form. Cleveland is coming off the bye, while the Niners played on Sunday Night Football. A lot of 49ers players have never seen this stadium. The Browns are an out-of-the-way opponent with whom the Niners have no real connection or ax to grind. At 5-0 with a clear path that lies ahead, we also might not see pinnacle urgency from the 49ers this week. They’re not a team that phones it in. However, there are some earmarks here for a letdown spot.

The Cleveland defense didn’t purport itself well against the Ravens in their last game, however, they’ve generally been pretty good, with a couple of lockdown-type performances already this season. Myles Garrett is a major factor up front, along with a strong line, middle, and disruptive and stout secondary. We see the 49ers coming off three straight home games where they weren’t being put in the hardest spots, facing the Giants, Rams, and then an off-key Dallas bunch last week. Could things maybe look a little different with a change in context, with them now on the road and out of conference?

Pros and Cons for Cleveland This Week

Before the bye and prior to being on the shelf briefly, Deshaun Watson was starting to show some flashes, connecting better with his aerial cast and showing more comfort and confidence. The loss of Nick Chubb is no doubt costly for this offense, and despite some nice moments, we will see if RB Jerome Ford can produce or if returning back Kareem Hunt can come around to speed. But still, with Amari Cooper, TE David Njoku, and a decent receiver crew, it’s an offense that can still make noise, rely on their defense, and hang in there even in heightened contexts such as these. The Chubb loss stings, but maybe that good offensive line can help spark some better results.

It’s just that going against this really good 49ers’ defense, there is an issue of offensive efficiency and success. Fact is, Watson has not been able to recapture the form he had in Houston. They’re down their main piece of artillery. You look on the other sideline and a young rising force at QB in Brock Purdy, you see two top receivers in Aiyuk and Samuel, a top-end threat in McCaffrey, and a productive tight end in George Kittle. Then you turn your attention to the other sideline, and you see a fading Watson, an aging Amari Cooper, and really what amounts to a bunch of role-guys.

I think the issue of urgency has some play in this spot. And not from a “which team wants it more” standpoint, but more from San Francisco’s perspective in how much they expend in this earlier part of the season. With injury-prone stars on this offense like Purdy, Deebo, and McCaffrey, do we, at some point, see a more conservative approach? Maybe they start to preserve McCaffrey’s legs, and we see more Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason? Just a slight tweak in their approach could impact how truly dangerous they are in these spots.

What to Expect

With the total being under 40, it seems they are forecasting a bit of a grind. I’m not sure I disagree. The combination of Cleveland being able to play defense while not having much explosiveness on the offensive side of the ball pairs up to create a situation where points might be precious. Cleveland faces some very real issues in this matchup with the notion of offensive success. They’re rested, Watson is back, and maybe they can come up with something. Before putting up just a FG with Watson out, they had scored between 22-27 in their other three games against the Titans, Steelers, and Bengals. Reproducing that output against this San Francisco “D” might be asking a lot, as they’ve allowed more than 16 points just once so far while putting up at least 30 in all their games. Based on what we’ve seen so far, taking San Fran in this spot can’t be called a bad move.

Take the Points

It feels almost foolish to question a healthy 49ers’ team that could really take off this season. They don’t take off weeks and appear to be one of the more foolproof teams in the league. It’s just that when looking at the 49ers’ highlights over the years, not a ton of them are happening in Ohio. They catch a rested home Browns squad that was subtly showing signs of coming around before their last game when Watson was out. I see a tightly-contested game where having five points is going to feel pretty good. I’ll take the Browns.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns plus 5 points.