San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

The San Francisco 49ers come to State Farm Stadium on Sunday for an NFC West faceoff with the Arizona Cardinals. The Niners are really cruising along nicely now, winners of five straight, including a 28-16 win over Seattle at home on Sunday. They now take to the road to battle an Arizona team coming off a bye, which followed one of their few high points of the season, dominating the Steelers on the road for a 24-10 win. Can the Cardinals give the 49ers a little sweat here, or will we see another 49ers’ romp on Sunday? Let’s break it down!

Not as Easy as it Looks

It’s very easy to low-rate the Cardinals. Whatever had them on the cusp of contender status a few years ago has gone whooshing out of the locker room. Even with them getting a nice win in their last game, they still enter week 15 with just three wins, having long known this season is a lost cause. Their Week 4 loss to the 49ers by the score of 35-16, where Christian McCaffrey scored four touchdowns, doesn’t really bolster them as an appealing choice this week, either.

While not attempting to paint the Cardinals in a flattering light, though, there are some sources of optimism. For how bad they’ve been all season, they’re still doing pretty good against the spread, as those thinking they’re easy pickings in that sense have been let down more often than not. It shows overall football excellence and the ability to cover spreads are two different things, as the Cardinals have actually been a tick better than the 49ers in that regard. Now, with a bye-week they’re using to get back to full power, along with the return of QB Kyler Murray and RB James Conner, low-rating the Cardinals as we head to the final stretch of the season might be a mistake.

The Case for Arizona

Again, they should be healthier, back to closer to full power on both sides of the ball with the benefit of the bye-week. Say what you will about Murray at QB, but he is a boost from whatever backups they had in there before. James Conner can do damage, as can an aerial cast that boasts of a lot of talented receivers and a rising force at tight end in Trey McBride. They do face a difficult defensive matchup going against the 49ers, but if they can get some better results on defense and not get trucked by McCaffrey while getting more out of an offense that is in better shape this time around, maybe they can make a game of this at home.

The 49ers hit that weird three-game skid a while back before reeling off five straight. While they’re certainly more cognizant of not slipping up, now knowing what can ensue, this is still a spot where they likely know on a visceral level that they can get this done at less than a full state of urgency. And they’re probably right. It’s still food for thought when on the road and laying points against a team that has been somewhat surprising in the amount of resistance they provide in spots.

The Comfort of Safety and Consistency

It’s still not easy getting behind a Cardinals team that is sometimes scrappy and other times really hits the skids. That’s especially true when taking on a team as reliable as the Niners, their three-game skid notwithstanding. That skid shows they can fall off unexpectedly, but otherwise, they’ve been utterly bankable on both sides of the ball with a defense that is both stout and playmaking, along with an offense that seems to always deliver with MVP frontrunner QB Brock Purdy running the show, with CMC, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and all their other weaponry. And having all those playmakers on the defensive side of the ball across all areas helps keep opposing offenses subdued.

It can be hard taking a team in a somewhat non-urgent situation, laying almost two TDs on the road against a team that has provided value this season. But the Rams just got done mopping up Arizona at home a few weeks ago, also getting beaten badly at home by a struggling Cincy team earlier in the season. It’s not like Arizona is above being walloped at home, though they have generally been fairly competent at State Farm Stadium. Either way, even with the large point allowance, there is just a feeling of greater safety and dependability getting behind SF, a team that, in their ten wins, only has one that wasn’t by double-digits. When they do well, they usually do very well. There haven’t been many nick-and-tuck-type wins for this squad this season. And we see in their last five games, the Niners outscoring their opposition to the tune of 162-55. They’re rolling along really well now, and it’s not easy to go against them.

Lay the Number on the Big Road Dog

Arizona has been scrappier than it first appears on the surface with their woeful 3-10 mark. Their last game, followed by a bye, offers some hope that we’re seeing Arizona play their best ball at the end of a trying season. All that and being at home surely counts for something. But at root, seeing the Niners put a two-TD win on the Cardinals isn’t terribly hard to do. And if San Fran hits the field at even a close-to-peak version of themselves, I see both sides of the ball giving the Cardinals a really tough time once again. I’ll take the 49ers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 13.5 points.