Desert Shootout: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals ATS Pick

NFL Football Week 8
Date and Time: Sunday, October 28th, 4:25pm EST
Where: State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
TV: FOX

Point Spread: SF +1/ARI -1
Over/Under Total: 43

POWER RATINGS:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS No.30
ARIZONA CARDINALS No. 29

TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 7:

Both of these teams are coming off of blowout losses as they also both fell to 1-6 on the 2018 season. San Francisco was destroyed by the Rams 39-10 Sunday afternoon, and the Arizona Cardinals lost on Thursday night to the Denver Broncos 45-10. Arizona is just bad, all around bad. They are ranked 31st in the NFL in points scored at less than 14 a game, and their trash defense is allowing 26 a game…not a good combination. As for San Francisco, you can make the excuse that they are still dealing with the loss of their quarterback, Jimmy Garropolo, and having to ride with CJ Beathard is a no win situation for this team. The 49ers are turning the ball over more than they are putting it in the end zone and until that can be resolved nothing will change. As for my overall “takeaway” from week 7, these teams still suck, and this game is going to be a tough one to watch. To be honest, I will be hungover come Sunday since I am attending The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida for the Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators match-up on Saturday, so this Niners and Cardinals “game” will be the perfect game to fall asleep to once I get back home and hit the sofa.

HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING SAN FRANCISCO AND ARIZONA:

With the line at almost a straight pick ‘em, the Arizona Cardinals are favored by one point at home over San Francisco. As of Tuesday morning, the early public action was just about even with 53% taking the hometown Cardinals and 47% liking San Francisco to pull the road upset. As for the total points, 57% thinks that the game will go under the total of 43. On the 2018 season, San Francisco is 2-5 against the spread while the Arizona Cardinals are 3-3-1.

THE HISTORICALS:

These two teams are no strangers to each other. Both playing the NFC West, they see each other twice every season. With the Rams pretty much already locking up the West Division, everyone else is just playing for pride and/or draft position. I would have never guessed this, but since 2013, the Arizona Cardinals are 8-2 straight up against the 49ers. Of those ten games though, against the spread Arizona is just 6-4. These two teams usually play each other pretty tight. This will already be the second meeting between these two teams this season. Arizona took the first game in San Francisco by a score of 28-18. In that game, the Niners had five turnovers, yes five… Three lost fumbles and two interceptions. The Cardinals offense was less than stellar, they just took advantage of the many mistakes that San Francisco made over the course of the four quarters. Although they won by 10, Arizona only passed for 164 yards to San Francisco’s 300. The Cardinals only managed ten first downs to San Francisco’s 33. If you look at just the stat line, one would think the 49ers won this game 24-10…nope. I can see a very similar game this Sunday. Whoever makes the least mistakes regardless of yardage will come away as the winner.

INJURY CONCERNS:

For Arizona, the only significant injury update is that of quarterback, Josh Rosen. Rosen was in a walking boot until this morning, but that has since come off, and they are planning on him going into full practice by Wednesday or Thursday. He is listed as questionable, but barring any further setbacks, he will be playing on Sunday. Other questionable players for the Cardinals are Tre Boston, Mike Iupati, and Jeremy Vujnovich. All three SHOULD be a go by Sunday but if not, in my opinion, no biggie. For San Francisco, Richard Sherman is listed as questionable, but sources are saying that he should be okay. The most critical piece to this week’s game is that of Matt Breida. I mentioned earlier that he is still in question and will be reassessed later in the week before the coaching staff makes a final decision on if he can go Sunday or if they will roll with Alfred Morris.

WHEN SAN FRANCISCO HAS THE BALL:

It is no secret that San Francisco has an issue at the quarterback position. With the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo, they now lean on the arm of CJ Beathard. Now through week seven, the 49ers are ranked 23rd in passing yards per game. Not only are the passing yards way lower than San Fran wanted this season, but the interceptions are also up…way up. CJ Beathard so far has thrown seven touchdowns to go with seven INT’s and five fumbles. Kyle Shannahan and the Niners have tried to take the pressure off Beathard with the run game and to be honest, it has not been bad. The 49ers are ranked 2nd in the NFL with 137 yards per game on the ground. The Niners ground attack is led by Matt Breida who has been nursing an ankle injury all week. Before his injury, he was averaging over six yards a carry and was becoming one of the few bright spots on this offense. The 49ers MUST continue to run the ball with or without Breida in the lineup. If Breida cannot go, the load will be handed to Alfred Morris who so far this season has only average around 3.5 yards a game and just 253 total yards. Again, whoever starts at RB does not matter, the Cardinals will have to rely heavily on the run game and to be honest, it could work in their favor. Arizona has given up more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, and they are also barely in the top 20 of yards allowed per carry. This plays perfectly to the Niners strength and barring numerous turnovers, which has and can happen, San Fran could control the tempo of this one.

WHEN ARIZONA HAS THE BALL:

When it comes to a “bad offense” it cannot get much worse than San Francisco…or can it? Oh yeah, it can. Take a look at the Arizona Cardinals…These dudes suck. 31st in the league in passing, 32nd in the league in rushing, and 31st in points scored. Good lord that is awful. So what will the game plan be coming into this one? My guess is this: The Cardinals just like the 49ers will try and control the ball and the clock. Although the 49ers numbers are a tad better offensively than Arizona, I still trust the fact that the Cardinals will make fewer mistakes. Maybe it is just a hunch, but it is my feeling. Arizona will play the field position game and use the run to set up some easy play-action throws for Josh Rosen potentially. I see the game plan for the Cardinals being very vanilla and they will ground and pound and hope that San Francisco makes more mistakes leading to easier scores.

BETTING TRENDS:

• After doing some digging, there are so many trends that tell me to lean the way of Arizona. Here are a few:
• The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six games after they did not cover the spread in their previous game.
• The Cardinals are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last six games vs. the NFC West
• The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread in their previous five games in October.
• The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against the NFC.
• The 49ers are 1-5 in their previous six games against the NFC West.

WEATHER REPORT:

The weather in Arizona is going to be great. No chance of rain. Mostly sunny skies with a temperature high of 86 and a low of 69. These conditions should not have any impact on Sunday’s game.

49ers at Cardinals ATS Prediction

Something just tells me that the home team is the play in this one. I am not high on either team but this Sunday, I like Arizona to beat San Francisco 20-10 on their way to their second win of 2018…and perhaps their last.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE ARIZONA CARDINALS MINUS ONE AT HOME VERSUS THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – BET THIS GAME AT SPORTSBETTING.ag (BEST BITCOIN BONUS)