Saints vs. Falcons Recommended Bet for Nov 26, 2023

New Orleans Saints (5-5 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday, November 26th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NO +1/ATL -1

Moneyline: NO -105/ATL -115

Total: 42

Both of these teams are unpredictable as hell! This is a great game to throw into a massive 20 point NFL teaser found only at Wagerweb Sportsbook! I play the 17-point teaser and win every week!

Perhaps one of the more overlooked games this weekend will be a critical NFC South matchup that features the Atlanta Falcons hosting the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Despite both teams being at the .500 mark or below, the Saints currently lead the division with a 5-5 (SU) record over the Falcons and Buccaneers, who are tied at 4-6 SU. However, the Falcons could climb into the top spot if they can pull out a victory this Sunday following a Week 11 bye. The Falcons have dropped 3 straight games but will reportedly revert back to QB Desmond Ridder, who started the season at quarterback, in hopes of turning things around.

While the visiting Saints currently lead the division, they have been wildly inconsistent throughout the year, especially on the offensive side of the football. Like the Falcons, New Orleans will also be fresh off a Week 11 bye and looking to turn things around on the offensive side of the football. QB Derek Carr has been struggling significantly over the last several games. Backup QB Jameis Winston got a chance at valuable playing time in the Week 10 loss to the Vikings. When Carr went down with a concussion, Winston immediately stepped in and connected on some big plays down the field. However, Winston’s career issues with turning the ball over were also on full display in the Vikings loss as the backup also tossed 2 picks with his 2 touchdowns. As things currently stand, Carr remains in the concussion protocol following the bye, and his status for Sunday remains uncertain.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Despite the quarterback situation remaining uncertain for this Sunday’s NFC showdown, I think we can all agree that both Saints’ quarterbacks have been wildly inconsistent when given their opportunities. Despite Winston’s turnover issues, I believe he may be the better quarterback for this offense. Winston has shown the arm strength and ability to stretch the field vertically with WR Chris Olave. With that being said, I highly doubt the Saints will give up on the 150 million dollar contract they extended to Carr over the offseason. Therefore, if Carr is healthy, I believe he will be the guy going forward without question.

The problem with Carr is that the decisions and continuity with his teammates appear to be missing. With the Saints losing WR Michael Thomas to the Injury Reserve, the Saints have fewer options in the passing game. Thomas was a safety blanket over the middle of the field, which will make things even harder for this Saints’ passing attack. Luckily, the New Orleans defense has played well enough to keep this team competitive throughout most of the season, and I expect that to be the case again this week with a total listed at a mere 42 points.

Despite all the concerns for the New Orleans offense, the Falcons have not been any better. After a brief stint with QB Taylor Heinicke, the offense will revert back to the original starter in QB Desmond Ridder. To put it simply, neither quarterback has offered much in the passing game, but Ridder’s dual-threat ability may be the current best fit for the offense. Either way, the Falcons match up terribly against the Saints’ pass defense, which means they will need a big effort on the ground from Ridder along with tailbacks Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Without a big effort on the ground, the Falcons will be forced into passing situations, which has been their kryptonite throughout the season.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• The Saints are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 13 of the last 16 games.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 9 of the last 11 games on the road.
• The Saints are 6-1 SU in the last 7 games against the Falcons.
• The Falcons are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 games.
• The Falcons are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games.
• The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games at home.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in 8 of the last 12 games against the Saints.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

As I alluded to above, I don’t believe this matchup favors the Falcons in many ways. However, neither offense is very reliable, meaning this game should provide low-confidence plays. With that being said, I think the Saints are the better team with the better matchup.

Jay’s Pick: Take New Orleans +1