Saints vs. Falcons Week 4 Pick & Prop Bets

New Orleans Saints (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2), 9/29/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 29

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

NFL betting odds: NO +2.5 / Atl -2.5

Money line: NO +115 / Atl -135

Over/Under: 42.5

Game Overview

The 2-1 Saints, coming off their first loss of the season, hook up with the 1-2 Falcons for an NFC South grudge match Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

The Falcons were the preseason favorites to win this division but are struggling a bit out of the gate. Meanwhile, New Orleans piled up a bunch of points in winning its first two games this season but got stymied last week.

Can the Saints bounce back? Or can Atlanta reach .500?

NFL Betting Line

The NFL Week 4 betting market opened Atlanta at -1.5 over New Orleans, with an O/U of right around 45. Early betting action, perhaps influenced by early injury reports, bumped the Falcons to -2.5 and dropped that total to 42.5.

Saints-Falcons Betting Preview

New Orleans just suffered its first defeat of the season, 15-12 at home to Philadelphia last Sunday. The Saints, after scoring 47 and 44 points in their first two games this season, managed just three points through the first three quarters. Then they took a 12-7 lead with two minutes left. But New Orleans then allowed the Eagles to drive 69 yards in five plays to a touchdown and could not respond.

The Saints got out-gained by Philadelphia 460-219 and out-rushed 172-89.

New Orleans opened this season with a 47-10 romp over Carolina, then blasted the Cowboys in Dallas 44-19. So it looked like the Saints were off to the races this season. Last week brought them back down to Earth.

After winning nine games last season (but missing the playoffs) New Orleans went off this season playing against a wins O/U of 7.5. The Saints are already a quarter of the way toward the over on that number but nothing’s been written yet.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Atlanta is 1-2 on the season after falling at home to Kansas City last Sunday, 22-17. The Falcons led the defending Super Bowl champs 7-0 and 14-7 early but later trailed 22-14. With a chance to go ahead late, Atlanta got snubbed on a pass interference no-call in the end zone, and that was it.

The Falcons also came up short ATS as 3-point home dogs.

Atlanta got out-gained by the Chiefs 345-311, out-rushed 128-82, and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split. So the Falcons actually deserved to lose that game.

Atlanta opened this season and the Kirk Cousins era with a lethargic 18-10 loss to Pittsburgh. The Falcons then trailed at Philadelphia 19-15 late but drove 70 yards in a minute to a game-winning touchdown.

So without that late drive two weeks ago, Atlanta would have been 0-3.

After winning seven games last season and then changing quarterbacks and head coaches, the Falcons started this season playing against a win O/U of 10.5. But at the moment, 11 wins seem like a stretch.

Injury Report

On the injury front, New Orleans lists RB Alvin Kamara as questionable for Sunday; if he can’t go, veteran Jamaal Williams might get some reps. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s down at least one, possibly two starters along the offensive line.

Saints-Falcons Recent History

New Orleans is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS over the last nine meetings with Atlanta. Last season, these teams split their two meetings, each winning on their home field. But the Saints out-gained the Falcons in both of those games.

Desmond Ridder started both meetings for Atlanta at quarterback last year.

The totals were split 1-1 on last year’s meetings, as the games averaged 52 total points.

NFL Betting Trends

• Home teams are just 23-24 SU and 20-26 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 29-19 SU and 22-25 ATS this season.
• Cousins is 77-69 as an NFL starter.
• New Orleans QB Carr is 74-88 as an NFL starter.

Totals Report

• Overs are 2-1 in Saints games this season, which are averaging 49 total points.
• Unders are 3-0 in Falcons games, averaging 37 points.
• Overs are 4-2 over the last six meetings between these teams.
• Unders are 27-20 in the NFL this season.

Prop Bets

Saints RB Williams, who may get increased touches if Kamara is hurting, is catching +270 to score a touchdown and +1700 to score two.

Falcons WR McCloud, 3rd on the team with 15 targets but without a touchdown, is catching +325 to score one TD and +2600 to score two.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Atlanta was the favorite to win the NFC South heading into this season, but they haven’t shown all that much yet. Maybe they’re still playing through the learning curve with the new HC and new QB. Meanwhile, New Orleans came out like gangbusters this season, then got humbled a bit last week. Might that make the Saints candidates for a bounce-back performance on Sunday? Also, even if Kamara is ailed, we like what Williams can do. Also, New Orleans ranks 10th in the League in time of possession at 31:38 while the Falcons rank 31st at 24:36. And teams that win the ToP battle are 31-17 SU and 31-16 ATS in the NFL this season. We’re marching with the Saints for Sunday, for the win on the money line.