Saints vs. Buccaneers Week 18 Predictions & Picks:

New Orleans Saints (5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Sunday, January 5th, 2025, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, FL.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: NO +13/TB -13
Moneyline: NO +550/TB -900
Total: 43.5

Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers greatly improved their chances of winning the NFC South and capturing one of the final playoff spots in the NFC. The Buccaneers blew out the Carolina Panthers in a 48-14 thrashing behind a brilliant performance from QB Baker Mayfield, who threw for 359 yards with five touchdowns. Afterward, the Buccaneers got some help when Washington pulled out an overtime victory over the Falcons in front of a Sunday Night Football audience. As a result, the Buccaneers have a full one-game lead in the NFC South going into their regular-season finale at home this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.

The path to clinching the NFC South and a playoff berth is relatively simple for the Buccaneers. If Tampa Bay wins as huge favorites against the Saints, they will win the division and make the playoffs. If the Buccaneers somehow get beat by the Saints, they would need an unlikely Falcons loss to the Panthers to keep control of the division. If the Bucs lose and the Falcons beat the Panthers, Atlanta would emerge from the tie-breaker scenario and win the NFC South. Needless to say, Tampa Bay controls their destiny and will be attempting to take care of business in a dream match-up against a New Orleans team that has lost 4 of their last five games.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

If anyone has watched the Saints closely in recent weeks, this team has nearly packed their bags for the 2024 campaign. The Saints gave up the only shutout of the NFL season two weeks ago in an embarrassing 34-0 loss to the Green Bay Packers and then last week the Saints suffered a 25-10 loss to the Raiders who are tied for the 2nd worst record in the NFL. To be fair, the Saints have been devastated with injuries. WR Chris Olave and TE Taysom Hill both had their season cut short with injuries. In recent weeks, QB Derek Carr and RB Alvin Kamara have also missed time, and their status for Sunday is once again in jeopardy. Considering that is nearly the entire Saints’ offense, it’s easy to see why the Saints have seemingly thrown in the towel.

For Tampa Bay, the Bucs offense appears to be firing on all cylinders at the moment. Mayfield is coming off his best performance of the season. WR Mike Evans is fully healthy again and has posted back-to-back stellar performances. The Tampa Bay running game has been a surprising bonus in recent weeks, with the continued emergence of RB Bucky Irving. Considering the Saints’ defense has also been decimated with injuries and can never get off the field, I expect the Buccaneers will be able to pick apart this defense by their choice between the passing and running attacks. The only concern for the 13-point betting line is whether the Buccaneers will pull any starters early. Even if that happens, I’m not sure the Saints can score enough points to deliver a cover.

Saints vs. Bucs Betting Trends

• New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• New Orleans has hit the “under” in each of the last five games.
• New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in the last five games on the road.
• New Orleans is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games.
• Tampa Bay has hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in the last six games at home against New Orleans.
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in the last five games against New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Prediction

I think this match-up is about as one-sided as it gets from every handicapping angle observable. Take the Bucs with full confidence!

Jay’s Pick: Take Tampa Bay -13