Saints vs. Chiefs Predictions: Can New Orleans Cover the Spread on MNF?
Game Information
Teams: New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Date: October 7, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Moneyline: Saints +205, Chiefs -245
Over/Under: 43.5 points
The Rundown
Monday Night Football features a clash between the New Orleans Saints (2-2) and the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (4-0). Both teams enter this matchup with significant offensive challenges due to injuries, setting the stage for a potentially low-scoring affair that could come down to defensive prowess and coaching strategy.
Team Analysis
New Orleans Saints (2-2)
The Saints have shown offensive efficiency, averaging 31.75 PPG, but injuries to key playmakers Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave cast doubt on their ability to maintain this production. Defensively, New Orleans has been stout, allowing just 17.50 PPG and demonstrating exceptional run defense, yielding a mere 68 rushing yards per game on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Despite their unblemished record, the Chiefs’ offense has underperformed by their lofty standards, averaging just 23.00 PPG. The absence of WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco has left significant voids, with Kareem Hunt failing to provide adequate replacement production. Travis Kelce remains a focal point but shows signs of decline, potentially unable to shoulder the offensive burden alone.
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Key Player Focus
Travis Kelce (Chiefs TE)
Last Week: 7 receptions, 89 yards
Season Average: 5.3 receptions, 62.7 yards per game
Analysis: Kelce’s production is crucial for the Chiefs’ offensive success, especially with limited weapons. While he showed signs of life last week, his overall season performance suggests a potential decline. His ability to create mismatches against the Saints’ defense will be pivotal.
Statistical Breakdowns
| Stat | Saints | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 31.75 | 23.00 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 17.50 | 18.00 |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 10.99 | 14.27 |
| Yards Per Point (Defense) | 18.87 | 18.15 |
| Passing Yards per Attempt | 11.19 | 10.40 |
| Rushing Yards per Attempt | 4.28 | 4.05 |
Defensive Matchup
This game has the potential to evolve into a defensive struggle. The Saints’ run defense (allowing just 68 rushing yards per game on the road) matches up favorably against a Chiefs offense struggling to establish a ground game without Pacheco. Conversely, the Chiefs’ defense has been solid, allowing just 18.00 PPG. With both offenses hampered by injuries, expect defensive coordinators to play a significant role in the game’s outcome.
Trends to Watch
- The Saints are 3-1 ATS this season, including 2-0 ATS on the road.
- The Chiefs are 2-1-1 ATS, but only 1-1 ATS at home.
- The Under is 16-5 in the Chiefs’ last 21 home games.
- In the last 5 meetings between these teams, the Saints have covered the spread 3 times.
X-Factor Analysis
The injury situation for both teams serves as the primary X-factor. The Saints’ offensive production hinges on the health and effectiveness of Kamara and Olave. For the Chiefs, their ability to generate offense without Rice and Pacheco will be crucial. Watch for pre-game injury reports and potential game-time decisions that could swing betting lines.
The Bottom Line
The 5.5-point spread favoring the Chiefs appears generous given their offensive struggles and the Saints’ defensive capabilities. While Kansas City remains undefeated, their wins haven’t been dominant, sporting just a +5.00 point differential on the season. The Saints have demonstrated an ability to keep games close and cover spreads, especially on the road.
The total of 43.5 points also warrants attention. Both teams are dealing with offensive limitations, and their defenses have been performing well. The potential for a low-scoring, defensive battle is high, aligning with the Chiefs’ recent trend of unders at home.
Prediction
Chiefs 20, Saints 17
Best Bets (Ranked by Confidence)
- Under 43.5 points (-110): Given the offensive injuries and strong defensive performances, this game has all the markings of a low-scoring affair.
- Saints +5.5 (-110): New Orleans’ ability to cover spreads, combined with Kansas City’s offensive limitations, makes this an attractive play.
- Travis Kelce Under 69.5 receiving yards (-115): While Kelce remains Mahomes’ primary target, the Saints’ defense and Kelce’s declining production make the under an intriguing proposition.
