Revenge Match: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Week 5 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 9:30PM EDT

Where: Tottenham Stadium, London, England

TV: NFL Net

Point Spread: BUF -6/JAC +6 (Bovada – Deposit $100, get $50 FREE! Best Live Betting!)

Money Line: Buff -250, Jags +210

Over/Under Total: 48.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in London at Tottenham Stadium. This is becoming a home away from home for the Jags, who beat the Falcons, also in London last week, 23-7, to move to 2-2 on the season. They remain in London for this game, taking on the Buffalo Bills, fresh off their one-sided thumping of division rival Miami on Sunday, 48-20. Who can help get our NFL Sunday off to a good start with the early game from London?

A Small Twist to the Equation

Jacksonville is a longtime participant in this International Series, so maybe this isn’t so much of a concern. With consecutive games in London, however, we’re in some unchartered water with the back-to-back games abroad and the extended stay in England for the Jaguars. They certainly looked good enough in game one, giving up 7 points to the Falcons in a lopsided win. The level of difficulty ramps up this week with what seems to be peaking Buffalo, having dusted off the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins in consecutive weeks by a combined 123-33 score.

The question becomes whether you look at this game neutrally or afford either team an advantage. Are the Jaguars better acclimated, not only by them playing here annually or by them having been here two weeks? Or will being away from home have a draining effect as some of the more-unpleasant aspects of international travel begin to set in? If anything, it looks like a pretty uphill battle for Jacksonville just strictly from a matchup perspective, but I wouldn’t rule out the fact that their greater familiarity with their surroundings is worth a little extra consideration, especially against a Buffalo team that hasn’t been in England since 2015 when they lost to the Jaguars.

Harsh Football Realities for the Jaguars

While 2-2 isn’t a big deal either way, the Jags haven’t exactly carried over the momentum from a hot finish in 2022. With wins over the Colts in week one and their win last week against Atlanta, sandwiching a loss to the Chiefs and a 20-point loss to the Texans, it’d be fair to say they’re off to a slow start. With just four TDs from Trevor Lawrence through four games, not much from lead back Travis Etienne, and an O-line that’s off to a slow start, as well, we haven’t really seen the offense turn over yet. Even in London this past Sunday, it was just one offensive TD, three field goals, and a pick-six that led to their 23 points. Against what we’re seeing from Buffalo lately, they’re going to need something closer to a peak Jacksonville offensive showcase to be in there with a shot, and we haven’t really seen that, the closest being their week one win over Indy.

Jacksonville did play better defense last week, albeit against a pretty dysfunctional Atlanta offense. Holding the Chiefs to 17 in a loss is probably their best moment of the season, though the 37-point allowance to Houston looms large. The Bills are tough when they get some momentum. Josh Allen has been on point since his three-interception game in week one against the Jets. We see Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis getting untracked, their two-headed monster at TE with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid getting untracked, with good RB work from James Cook and goal-line threats Latavius Murray and Damien Harris. It’s a stocked offense with a prolific QB who can get the ball in their hands. This will provide a good litmus test for where this Jacksonville “D” stands after some inconclusive results in the first quarter of the season.

It’s a tall task, but one should maybe expect the Jaguars to come up to speed sooner than later. They rose from the ashes last season to win a playoff game, frenetically fighting their way in with a big run of wins. So, it’s understandable that they’d maybe open the season a little more relaxed than they should. And not that this is some line-in-the-sand moment or anything, but maybe Doug Pederson’s group comes up with something a little more cutting-edge than what we’ve been seeing, in light of the opponent and it just being time to kick this up a notch.

Buffalo Dialing It In?

With Buffalo not making it to the conference title game last season in a down season for them, combined with losing to a Rodgers-less Jets in week one, you could almost pinpoint that moment as the lowest the overall morale has been on the bills since they shot into prominence several seasons ago. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this also coincided with them going on a three-game spree, smashing the Raiders, Commanders, and ‘Fins in consecutive weeks, looking as good as they ever have. They just don’t really have the vibe of a team one should be going out of their way to mess with in a betting sense.

Lay the Points

This is definitely one of those more off-the-grid games where a team could be in store to put forth an out-of-tune performance. That equation goes both ways, however, despite Jacksonville’s greater London familiarity. Being more situated in London isn’t going to solve their problems, and this seems like an odd spot for both sides of the ball to take on vintage form. I don’t rule out the Jags making this competitive, but I think Buffalo should win this by a TD or more. I’ll take the Bills.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills minus 6 points.