RBD’s NFL Picks: Deja Vu All Over Again? (Week 17)

It was January 2, 2015.
It was a Friday morning.
It was the worst bad beat of my life.

Pittsburgh was up on Houston by a score of 34-14 in the Military Bowl.
I’m laying a couple of points with Pittsburgh, and I’m up by 20 with just over 3 minutes left on the clock.
TWENTY POINTS!
THREE MINUTES LEFT!
I’m golden, right?
I’m cashing this one, right?

To beat me the Cougars would have to:
Score a touchdown.
Make the extra point.
Pull off a successful on-side kick.

Score ANOTHER touchdown.
Make the extra point.
Pull off ANOTHER successful on-side kick.

Score a third touchdown.
Kick a third extra point.

All in a little over three minutes.

I’M GOLDEN, RIGHT?
I’M CASHING THIS ONE, RIGHT?
Wrong!!!
Final score was Houston 35-34.

Fortunately, I was watching the game in a public place. Had I been at home I might have gone “Elvis” and blasted my TV with a shotgun (I don’t actually have guns in the house, unless you’re a burglar reading this, in which case I have a couple of them.)

Had I been at the stadium, I would have fought my way through the crowd mobbing the field at the end of the game, found Pittsburgh interim head coach Joe Rudolph, and strangled him.
His ignorance on matters such as clock management – using the rushing game to keep the clock running instead of having his QB throw incomplete passes to help stop the clock – helped his opponent score 21 points in three minutes.
And cost me a lot of money.

Needless to say, Pittsburgh didn’t give him the head coaching job.
Neither did any other team. Ever.
And rightfully so. Rat bastard.

It’s December 26, 2024.
It’s nine years later.
This morning, I’ll be watching Pittsburgh take on Toledo.
I’ll have my money on Toledo.
And I’ll be hoping I don’t experience any Deja Vu flashbacks to 2015.

Now, back to business.
Monday Night Football, 12/30.
Detroit at San Francisco

The Lions, 13-2 SU, 6-1 ATS on the road.
The Niners, 6-9, 4-4 ATS at home.

San Fran, buried in last place in the NFC West, no chance at making the playoffs.

Detroit tied with Minnesota for first place in the NFC North.
Right now, they hold the tiebreaker, having beaten the Vikings earlier this season. But they face them for a second time next week, the final game of the season, meaning this is a serious game with no margin for error for the Lions at San Fran.

Extra incentive – the Lions are only one game ahead of Philadelphia for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Eagles have Dallas and New York at home to close out their season. Translation: two easy wins for the Eagles. Meaning with Minnesota on deck Detroit can’t stumble this week.

San Fran finds themselves out of playoff contention after losing five of their last six. A lot of tough losses in there to good teams, Buffalo, Green Bay, and LAR.
But also 7-8 Miami.

Only two teams have managed to beat Detroit this year, the Bucs and the Bills, both in first place in their divisions.
SF is not in the same category as either of those two.
Not even close.
Detroit will get the win, despite their injuries on defense. So it’s just a matter of beating the spread. And towards that end, I have this:
WF2 says San Fran should be the Favorite.
WF1 says, “I don’t think so.”
And the differential between their two numbers is enough to qualify San Fran as an asterisk play.
NFL record for this spot is 3-11 overall and 3-10, a 78% Fade when playing AGAINST a Hm team.
SF is at home this week.

When to Buy Recommendation
Detroit opened -3.
Half the books I’m looking at have hung a hook on it, the other half juiced the price on the -3.
I used Detroit a few weeks ago at Houston and bought the hook off the field goal they were laying.
Final score – Detroit 26-23.
It cost me an extra 20 cents to buy the hook that day, and it saved me a loss of $110 (based on a standard buy of 110/100.)
Don’t think I’ll need it this week but I’m playing it the same way because I stick with what works, and buying the hook of Detroit on the road worked last time I used it.

This week’s play, Detroit -3, -122 at our sponsor Bookmaker.

Recap: Push with Minnesota.
Record: 12-15.30
Review: Got a push with the Vikings at the Seahawks, but it was a bad buy on my part as it dropped to -2′ at kickoff.