RBD’s Falcons vs. Panthers Pick & Analysis

Riding the “Asterisk” Play (5-0, 100%) with Atlanta

Before I get to the Atlanta play, here is something to be aware of. Give it as much or as little weight in your handicapping as you see fit, but you should know that the NFC is now 16-7, 69% SU vs the AFC.
And they’re 14-6, 70% ATS.
(There’s a three-game difference between the total number of plays in each category. I’m guessing there were three pushes ATS. When I get a minute, I’ll go back and check.)

Four games qualify this week:
Jax/Chi in London, Wash at Bal, Cle at Phil, and Cin at NYG. I’m probably not buying any of them, just giving you some food for (handicapping) thought.

I just completed a mid-season breakdown for my college football play (see my CFB mid-season report, there’s some good stuff in it.)

It’s not mid-season in the NFL yet, but it never hurts to analyze your numbers, and since I was in breakdown mode anyhow, I thought I might as well take a look at my play on the big boys.

Homepage record: 4-6.5
Favs 4-2
Dogs 0-1.5
Props 0-2
Teasers 0-1

Forum: 3-2
Favs 1-0
Props 2-2

Combined:
7-8.5
Favs 5-2
Props 2-4
Teasers 0-1
Dogs 0-1.5

I entered the NFL regular season with three units banked from the preseason, so despite the slow start, my head’s still above water.

Adding the preseason plays my numbers look like this:
Combined:
10-8.5
Favs 5-2
Dogs 1-0
Over 1-0
Props 2-4
Team Total Over 1-0
Teasers 0-1
Dogs 0-1.5

So, what did I learn, what can I use?

At just 2-4, I need to stay away from props unless I really like one.
And teasers – don’t be the books buddy and use gimmick plays. (The books love people who play teasers and parlays.)

This week I’m coming back with the same system I used last week.
I stick with what works, and the “asterisk” play (*) is working across all sports:
NFL 0-5
WNBA 3-6
College football 5-8
A combined 8-19, 70% Fade.
On Sunday, two teams fit the numerical parameters necessary to qualify (as well as one team on Monday.) I’m using one here, I’ll post the other two in the forum for informational purposes only, in case anyone is looking for angles on those games.
I might buy one or both of them.
If so, I’ll post an update in the forum.

On Sunday, first place Atlanta takes on last place Carolina.
The Panthers have the worst point differential in the league, scoring just 83 while giving up 165 for a diff of -82.
Carolina is just 1-4, their lone win coming at Las Vegas.
Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young in game three and got the Panthers their first win but after that the natural order of things was restored and they lost their next two.

On the other hand, after that inexplicable week one loss to Pittsburgh, Cousins and the Falcons have won three of four. The only loss was against undefeated Kansas City; no shame there.

In their last game, on Thursday night, Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards, breaking the Atlanta team record. He also threw four touchdowns.

If you picked up Cousins on free agency for your NFL fantasy team Thursday morning, AND took Drake London (one TD, 154 yards) off the bench and put him in the lineup to play with his quarterback, you deserve a pat on the back. (Excuse me while I pat myself on the back.)

His team was down at the end of the first quarter.
His team was down at halftime.
His team was down by seven at the start of the 4th quarter.
And his team was down by three points with under a minute left in the game.
But Cousins led the team downfield and Koo kicked the tying field goal as time expired. Then, in OT, Kirk threw a 45-yard TD pass to give the Falcons the win.

THAT is the kind of victory that builds a team’s confidence.
THAT is the kind of team I want to have my money on in their next game. Especially if it fits one of my systems.

From an ATS standpoint, I’ve got Atlanta, 1-0 on the Rd, vs Carolina, 1-2 at Hm.
From a margin of victory POV, I have a slight concern in that the Falcons wins have come by one point, two points, and six points. Not much margin for error.
But those concerns are waylaid by the fact that in their four losses, the Panthers have been outscored by 37, 23, 10, and 26 points.

Carolina has played only one game against a division opponent this year and were crushed by the Saints 47-10. I’m not expecting a similar obliteration this week, but the Falcons should be able to give the Panthers enough of a beating to cover the number the books hung on this one.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 4-6.5
Review: The play I commandeered using the Commanders -3 was a comfortable victory. Washington took a 7-0 lead and never looked back, winning by 21.

Baltimore -2′ was a different story.
This was anything but a comfortable win.
The recommendation to buy it early was a good move. Some houses did eventually go to Bal -3, but most closed at -2′ which turned out to be a key number when Baltimore kicked the game-winning field goal in overtime for a win by the hook.
It may not have been a comfortable win, but it was one of the best games to watch this season as both offenses took turns pounding on each other.

This week’s play:

Atl -6
When to Buy Recommendation:

This one opened as low as Atlanta -3 and has steadily climbed since.
It’s sitting at -6 across the board right now.
I don’t see a buyback coming for Carolina if it gets to +7 because I don’t think any sharps fortunate enough to grab the Falcons at -3 are going to want to risk it on a middle. Normally they jump at the chance for a four point middle in the NFL but on this one I think they’ll just let their original bet ride on the much better team laying just a FG.
If I wait till game day, I might end uplaying the full TD, so I bought Atlanta this morning at -6.