Ravens vs Chiefs Betting Picks: AFC Championship Rematch

The 2024 NFL season opens up with a big Thursday Night Football showdown, as the Baltimore Ravens enter Arrowhead to battle the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The last time these teams were on the field, it was last season’s AFC title game where the Chiefs won narrowly, 17-10. Both of these contenders once again enter this season with high hopes. With two of the bigger star quarterbacks in the league with, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, this is a high-stakes week one matchup with both teams knowing a win like this could provide some early wind in the sails for the tough season to come. Who should we get behind to kick off week one in the NFL?

Team Changes

With two teams who both made it so far, the changes aren’t going to be too crazy, but both teams enter this season with some new pieces. For the Chiefs, the main departure was that of CB L’Jarius Sneed, a top corner and a man whose presence was key in winning the AFC title game last season when he punched the ball out of Zay Flowers’ grip on the one as he went for a TD. What could help are the additions to the passing game, with Mahomes reuniting with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is back in the fold, along with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (questionable) coming into the fray. First round speed-merchant Xavier Worthy also could make an impact. And who knows, maybe P Matt Araiza gives their special teams game a boost with his big leg.

Baltimore also got some help in the draft and we’ll see if first round corner Nate Wiggins can make an impact, while rookie T Roger Rosengarten seems to have locked down a spot up-front. The biggest incoming name is Derrick Henry and he remains a weapon, albeit one who may be waning at least slightly. Other than that, it’s a lot of the same for a Ravens team that really hit its stride last season.

What to Expect out of the Gate

I think the respective statuses for each team are reflected in their week one showings over the years. You have two QBs and two head coaches who have been there a while, making patterns somewhat more important. With KC on such a great roll of titles and success and with the Ravens more the hungry contender who hasn’t quite cracked into the bigtime, they open the season with a different vibe. You’ve seen a lot of fast starts and lopsided game-one wins for the Ravens, while the Chiefs more ease themselves into action. So early in the season, we could see some of these divergent approaches manifest, where the Ravens maybe are more-poised to hit the ground running.

That’s not to say the Chiefs are phoning it in during the early regular season. We’ve seen a certain immunity to the Super Bowl Hangover, as they are two-time defending champions. It’s still a lot different than the team who first came into prominence under Mahomes where clocks were getting cleaned all season long. Now, they do what they have to do to cultivate a winning season, then hit a new gear in the playoffs. It’s not a week-to-week proving ground. With the Chiefs coming off the Super Bowl, the Ravens being denied that in a close game, and their desire to make this the season they overcome KC, it’s just easier to see them hitting the field on Thursday with more of an ax to grind.

Not so Fast…

Heightening the Chiefs’ week one urgency is an offense with some new pieces they’d like to get worked into the mix. Rashee Rice starts his second season after a strong rookie campaign, and getting him uncorked will be a priority. Travis Kelce is as automatic as it gets, even at his age. They’re going to want to get RB Isiah Pacheco involved while seeing what they have under the hood with the rookie Worthy. I’d look for the increased variety of the aerial pieces to force the Ravens to take a different approach than what we saw in the AFC title game where they were stacking boxes, as I’d look for Pacheco to be primed to have a decent game.

Last season, we saw Kansas City perhaps more subdued at times on offense, with their “D” taking a larger hand in things. That front-seven is very tough and was instrumental in holding this strong Ravens offense to a mere ten points en route to the Bowl. The presence of Henry might throw that into a different light, and recently, the Ravens have been without that dependable workhorse back that they now have. But we still know this Kansas City defense can keep Lamar Jackson in check—not letting him get to the outside and forcing him to beat you with the passing game. And while having top TE Mark Andrews more healthy could go a long way, it’s a passing-game that outside of Zay Flowers is a little thin. With Zay, Andrews, another good TE in Isaiah Likely, the legs of Jackson and now Henry, there is talent on this offense, but we’ll see aerially against good defenses whether Jackson has enough options.

Take the Points

It’s not an easy spot, coming into Arrowhead, a difficult enough place to play when they’re not basking in the adulation of their second straight Super Bowl triumph. And this isn’t the same Chiefs’ team where it’s all offense and a “D” that has to just not be terrible. It’s a more complete team. I just sense a tossup-type game where the Ravens could potentially be pushing a tad harder. And if they don’t quite make it, at least you get the little cushion. But in a game that’s hard to call either way, I’m going to take the Ravens and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Baltimore Ravens plus 3 points. Bet your Week 1 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a massive 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $75 to $300 when you enter bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!