Ravens vs. Broncos Pick: Is Baltimore Due for a Letdown?

Denver Broncos (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 9
Date/Time: Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 1PM EDT
Where: MT&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: CBS

The Denver Broncos come to MT&T Stadium on Sunday for an AFC battle with the Baltimore Ravens in a showdown between 5-3 teams. The Ravens look to get back on track at home this week after seeing their 5-game winning streak end at the hands of the Browns last week, 29-24. Coming into town is a Broncos team that has surprised many with a good first half to the season. On Sunday, they were able to get a 28-14 win over Carolina for their fifth win in 6 games, making them a dangerous opponent for the favored Ravens this week.

Food for Thought

In early-week player moves, we saw the Ravens trade for Carolina receiver Diontae Johnson, which they hope gives their offense a boost. With Zay Flowers already producing well in this offense and with TE Mark Andrews coming to life in recent weeks, this gives opposing defenses more to keep track of, with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry already getting a lot of attention coming out of the backfield. And while last week’s loss ended a 5-game winning streak, which allowed the Ravens to atone for a bad start to the season, Jackson will be using this as a chance to get back on the right track, as his mistakes have caused this offense to have some issues in recent weeks.

What to Make of the Broncos

When the Broncos began this run of five wins in six games, they were scraping by with defense. In their last four games, however, we’ve seen three games where they’re putting up 34, 33, and then 28 points last week. It’s not the inept offensive machine anymore. Bo Nix throwing three TDs on Sunday was his high-water mark of the season, as the Denver rookie QB is getting more comfortable with each passing week. We’re seeing the run-game have more success, though it’s still not a consistent part of the winning equation. And with Nix experiencing more success aerially, it’s bringing in different weapons, especially Courtland Sutton, who looks ready to reform in his role of number-one receiver.

With 24 points allowed in their last two games, however, we see it’s the Denver defense that is still doing a lot of the heavy lifting. The Denver pass rush was cranking it up again on Sunday, grabbing two more picks for this opportunistic defense that sees them continue to alter the course of games. At the same time, with this recent patch of games coming against the Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Panthers, maybe that’s just an ideal time for certain parts of the Denver make-up to shine. On the road against a team in better form, last week’s loss to Cleveland notwithstanding, maybe we see things thrown into a different light.

Issues for the Ravens and Broncos this Week

Again, the level of competition ratchets up a notch or two for the Broncos in this road-spot. One thing potential Baltimore backers should be cautious of this week is that a team like Denver is difficult to assess on paper, where maybe the real essence of what they are is difficult to capture. When a team latches onto some success and is responding to the coach where a rookie QB is starting to shine, it can take a while for your mind to come around. While the opposition has been easier in some spots, overly focusing on that could lead you to miss the whole point. With that said, things look to get a lot harder for the Broncos this week.

Over the last several seasons, we’ve seen the Baltimore defense play with a wide range of variance, sometimes within the same season, going from readily exploitable to air-tight. But having given up 121 points in their last four games, this isn’t a version of the Baltimore defense that should have anyone scared. I think it’s on the offensive side of the ball where Denver can have some issues. And while playing the Denver defense isn’t a week where you’d pick offenses to shine typically, Denver is dealing with a different equation this week. With the damage Baltimore can do out of the backfield with Jackson and Henry and even nifty Justice Hill, it’s a lot for a defense to repel. Throw in all those aerial weapons—the dual TE approach with Andrews and Lively, the addition of Johnson if he’s good to go, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and Flowers. This Denver defense will have a lot on their plates. And between the two offenses, there’s a disparity in overall firepower that is hard to not acknowledge.

Take the Points

It’s easy to understand the angle of someone who likes the Ravens this week. A Baltimore team and a version of Jackson that is highly-irritated about last week’s result comes home and beats up on a Denver team that has been made to look a little better than they are. It’s not an altogether-assailable premise on a lot of levels. I just sense that while the Ravens aren’t off their axis, something is at least slightly askew. With the way their defense is playing, laying almost double-digits in points to a team that has won five of six games seems to be pushing it a little bit in terms of sound reason. I think Denver is the type of overachieving team where nothing jumps out on paper, and teams like that are easy to overlook. I think the Broncos will hang in there on Sunday and cover the spread in Baltimore. I’m taking the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 9.5 points.