Rams vs. Jets Week 16 NFL Picks: Road Warriors Roll On

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets, 12/22/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 22
Where: MetLife Stadium
TV: CBS

Point spread: LAR -3/NYJ +3
Money line: LAR -170/NYJ +145
Over/under: 46.5

The surging Los Angeles Rams, now the leaders of the NFC West, continue their quest toward the playoffs when they head cross-country to play the Jets in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon.

The Rams started this season 1-4; they’re 7-2 since, playing their best ball at the right time.

Meanwhile, New York, the lost cause that it is, just picked up its first victory since Halloween.

Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford faced off many times as rivals back in the NFC North, and Rodgers and his Packers usually got the best of Stafford and his Lions. Who are we going with for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

The NFL Week 16 betting market opened Los Angeles at -3, with an O/U of around 46 on most betting boards. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.

Rams Betting Preview

Los Angeles rides a three-game winning streak into Sunday after beating San Francisco in the rain and slop last Thursday 12-6. The Rams trailed the 49ers 6-3 through three quarters but kicked three short field goals in the fourth to steal an ugly W.

LA outrushed San Francisco 142-63, won the time of possession 35:25, and did not commit a turnover. So, the Rams have outrushed their last three opponents.

Two weeks ago, on the turf inside SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles racked up 457 yards of offense and beat Buffalo 44-42. Three weeks ago, LA won at New Orleans 21-14.

At 8-6 overall, the Rams now lead the NFC West by a tie-breaker over 8-6 Seattle. And Los Angeles gets the Seahawks at SoFi in Week 18.

In fact, the Rams are now listed as -175 favorites to win their division.

Jets Betting Preview

Meanwhile, New York just nixed a four-game losing skid with a 32-25 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday. Neither team ever led by more than one score, and the game eventually reached 25-25 late. But Rodgers connected on a couple big plays with old friend Davante Adams to set up a touchdown with a minute left and an interception five plays later sealed the deal.

The Jets actually got out-gained by the Jaguars 421-400 and lost time of possession 34:26. But they got a huge day from the Rodgers-Adams combo – nine connections for 198 yards and two scores – and did not commit a turnover.

Still, New York’s been out-gained by five of its last six opponents.

Two games ago, the Jets lost at Miami in overtime 32-26. Three games ago, they blew a 21-7 lead and lost to Seattle 26-21. Four games ago, New York gave up a 24-16 lead and lost to Indianapolis 28-27.

At 4-10, the Jets are going through a very humbling experience this season, heading toward uncertainty this off-season.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 23-20 Jets victory out at LA. Sam Darnold quarterbacked New York that day against Jared Goff for the Rams. Both those guys will be starting for somebody else Sunday.

By the Numbers

Los Angeles is averaging 338 YPG on offense this season and 106 on the ground. Defensively, the Rams are allowing 354 YPG and 135 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin (Sagarin.com) ranks as the 4th-toughest schedule in the League.

New York is averaging 307 YPG on offense, just 90 rushing, while holding foes to 315 YPG, 121 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 15 schedule.

Common Opponents

These teams have played seven common opponents this season: members of the AFC East, NFC, West, and Minnesota. Los Angeles played those foes to 6-2, both SU and ATS and -11 YPG, New York to 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS, but +10 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

• Home dogs are 33-52 ATS this season.
• Rodgers is 13-4 all-time vs. Stafford.

Totals Report

The totals are split 7-7 in Rams games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.

The overs are 8-5 in Jets games, which are averaging 43 points.

Touchdown Props

Jets WR Adams, who scored two touchdowns last week, is catching +600 to score two touchdowns this week.

Rams WR Nacua, who leads the team in receiving yardage but only owns three touchdowns, is catching +100 to score one TD and +500 to score two.

Free NFL Betting Pick

We expect Los Angeles to win the ground battle in this game, which is usually a good start toward covering a spread. The Rams recently beat maybe the best team in the League, the Bills. New York needed a last-minute drive against a bad Jacksonville team to snap a four-game losing skid. Rodgers targeted Adams 35 times over their last three games; Los Angeles may have noticed. We like the Rams minus the points for Sunday.