Rams vs. Colts: Week 4 NFL Betting Preview & Pick

Los Angeles Rams (1-2 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 1PM EDT
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: Fox

Point Spread: LAR +1.5/IND -1.5 (Bovada – 50% bonus and the BEST live betting online!)
Money Line: Rams +105, Colts -125
Over/Under Total: 47

The Los Angeles Rams take on the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Rams are just 1-2, though they’ve been good to those backing them with a 2-0-1 ATS mark. On MNF, they fell to the Bengals, 19-16. Still, playing at least a little better than expected, they’re hoping for more of the same scrappiness when they go into Indy to take on the 2-1 Colts. Last Sunday, without rookie QB Anthony Richardson, the Colts took their first loss of the year in a 31-21 loss to the Jaguars. Can they get back on the right track at home this week in what seems like doable spot?

Establishing the Battle Lines

I’d imagine the Colts are planning on running Richardson out there this week, and his inclusion in this Indy offense might take away some of their aerial upside, but his ceiling is definitely higher. We see Zack Moss doing really well as he takes on a larger role on the backfield. With him and Richardson pounding away on the ground, it’s going to test a Rams’ run defense that while holding up decently last week, might not be suited to curtail the more-potent run-games they see this season.

There is a flip side to that coin, however, and maybe as we entered this season with the Rams, we neglected to account for the still-effective passing acumen of Matthew Stafford. Sure, not having Kupp in there hurts, but it’s still taking time for some people to catch up to what the Rams still have. The Colts have issues in the area of pass-defense, almost giving up 400 to rookie CJ Stroud a few weeks back. If Stafford can dish it out to guys like Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and TE Tyler Higbee, maybe they can continue to hang in there, at least against teams like the Colts, who are also works-in-progress.

Issues for the Rams?

It’s just with an O-line that isn’t very good, being without their top star on offense, and a “D” that has Aaron Donald and a bunch of guys, you wonder if the wheels will start to come undone for the Rams at some point. Beating Seattle at home decisively in week one while playing both the Niners and Bengals close and covering the spread does force one to view the Rams a bit differently. It’s also possible those results are the byproduct of their opponents dealing with issues, as the Bengals were on MNF with a gimpy Burrow and an 0-2 start.

At the same time, if the wheels didn’t come off against San Fran and they’re good enough to go into Seattle and maul the Seahawks, maybe the Rams aren’t so out of their wheelhouse in this matchup. It’s a bit of an out-of-the-way foreign locale for the Rams, making you wonder how many of their players have ever played in this stadium. Even erstwhile vet Stafford probably hasn’t seen this stadium more than a time or two. I think when you’re going to see the Rams assume the placement many set out for them in the preseason will be in games against good teams that are rolling good with no crippling outstanding issues on their plates. They should probably command more respect in this context, taking on a team in the developmental stages where they’re still working out a lot of different things.

Are the Colts in a Position to Exploit the Rams?

One could envision a running extravaganza, but with Moss and Richardson, who is seeing his first work after a concussion, do they really have that reliable of a 1-2 punch to unleash on the Rams? We see the Rams without Kupp, but the Colts without RB Jonathan Taylor comes at a price, as well. In essence, while both teams have alternate routes to success, they have some things in common—a narrow path offensively, along with a “D” that doesn’t always cooperate. With Richardson, the extent of the Rams’ issues in the secondary won’t be in full bloom, while the Rams not being able to run the ball well outside of goal-line and short-yardage situations, along with the occasional gadget play with Atwell, should help Indy. Granted, the Colts haven’t shown a great pass “D” as of yet, but they at least know where their area of focus needs to be.

I have three major concerns for the Colts Sunday. Their secondary is very weak for starters, as they’re starting two undrafted corners. The second is that Richardson is a rookie, and rookies make errors. Especially when Aaron Donald is staring you down. Third, I’m not a believer in the Indy offensive line. Especially if their Center Kelly misses Week 4.

My only concern with the Rams is they’re coming off a short week.

Take the Points with the Underdog

I don’t love this game, but if forced to pick a side, I’d bet the Rams. Matthew Stafford looks incredible downfield, and he’s got two excellent receivers that will likely roast the weak corners Indy puts on the field. I’m also not sold on Zack Moss at running back, despite his two decent performances, which I believe to be an enigma.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’d bet on the Los Angeles Rams at plus 1.5 points.