Rams at Saints Prediction: Can LA Cover the Spread?

Los Angeles Rams (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 13
Date/Time: Sunday, December 1, 2024 at 4:05PM EST
Where: Ceasars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Fox

The Los Angeles Rams come to the Superdome for a week 13 matchup with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. We have two teams here, neither of whom can afford another loss if they have any hopes for this season. The Saints have been downright weird this season, starting off looking great, sinking to almost-unimaginable depths before bouncing back these last few weeks with two straight wins. Last week, the Saints were on a bye, which followed a 35-14 spanking of the Browns. They await the incoming Rams, 37-20 losers to the Eagles last Sunday. They hope things get easier this week. Let’s break it down!

Good Spot for the Saints?

Some things shake out badly for the Rams this week, just in terms of timing. Whereas they’re coming off a punishing defeat to the Eagles where Saquon Barkley destroyed this defense, the Saints have been at home, awaiting their third straight home-game, sandwiching a bye week. In other words, they will have been at home for a month by the time this game kicks off, far more rested and with decent momentum built up with two straight wins. If this game happened a month ago, it would have been a totally different thing, but the conditions now almost appear to favor the Saints.

The Saints benefitted by the return of Derek Carr, but who will he have alongside him? Another concussion for top wide receiver Chris Olave has their receiver package a bit tattered. They can still do damage with Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, and others, but to be without both Olave and Shaheed for this game would be a little much, especially when you look on the other sideline and see all the aerial potential the Rams possess in the form of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. The Saints have gotten a few big plays recently from Marquez Valdez-Scantling, but is that something they can depend on moving forward?

Overlooking the Rams

The tendency on the part of some this week is to place too much credence on what we saw last week where an on-point Eagles’ team really let the Rams have it in an ugly home-loss. For much of the season, we have been expecting this no-name Rams’ defense to sink to the depths we saw on Sunday night. And now that we’ve seen it, people might think that’s the way things are now. I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that. It’s one showing out of many, with the Rams having done enough to maybe make that a game you don’t count so strongly against them. Since week 2, that was the first time the Rams allowed more than 24 points, so maybe we should cut them some slack.

This also figures to be closer to a spot where the Rams can allow their offense to unfurl more organically and not in response to the opponent having an offensive bonanza. Against the Saints, it’s not as likely to occur at all. The Rams can get back to what they do best on offense—setting the table with RB Kyren Williams, while Stafford looks for Kupp, Nacua, and others to make the big plays. And sure, along with the Saints playing better in recent weeks is a New Orleans defense that isn’t the same slapstick unit it was a handful of weeks ago. But if Stafford and the Rams hit this field in good form with their urgency resonating as they look to climb back into a division race they are still in, this Saints’ defense is far from being above reproach in this spot. The Rams can definitely get some business done on offense this week.

What to Expect

I’d imagine both teams come out here gunning. After watching the Rams take it on the chin last week against the run, does this set up as a high-usage day for Kamara, with the Saints adding in sprinkles of Taysom Hill, who ran hog-wild in his last game with 138 yards and three TDs? With their receiver crew in a state of disarray heading into this final stretch of games, do we see the Saints lean on the run more? They’re also going to need their defense to cooperate and help develop the kind of game-script the Saints will need in order to put forth a large dose of the run-game.

A potential issue develops when pondering the issues the Saints are facing on defense against the opposing aerial attack. The more adept teams the Saints have faced in this area have been having big days against this bunch. If Stafford starts dialing it with Kupp and Nacua, that could be a problem. The Rams’ aerial attack took a potential hit with WR Demarcus Robinson arrested for DUI after their loss to the Eagles, with his status not hashed out as of press time. Still, there is more than enough remaining power for Stafford to use aerially, which stands to put a crimp in the Saints’ approach.

Lay the Points

Both of these teams have popped up week-to-week this season with wide ranges of form. We’ve seen both teams span the spectrum of going from looking like contenders to looking like they’re among the worst teams in the league. And sometimes, it doesn’t make a lot of sense which direction either team goes. I don’t see this as an easy spot against a Saints team that just might run the ball down the Rams’ throats. I just see the New Orleans defense having enough issues that it might be hard to contain all the different LA weapons on the ground and through the air, with the desperate Rams really gunning hard for the win this week. I’ll take the Rams.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Rams minus 3 points.