Rams at Chiefs Week 12 Total Pick & Analysis

Los Angeles Rams (3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday November 27th, 2022. 4:25 PM (EST)

Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: LAR +14.5/KC -14.5 (Did you know you can tease NFL games up to 20 points at Wagerweb? You can make KC a +5.5 underdog!)

Moneyline: LAR +780/KC -1130

Total: 44

Earlier this season, the Buffalo Bills emerged as the clear frontrunner in the AFC following a promising start to the season. However, in recent weeks, the frontrunner in the AFC has shifted back toward the Kansas City Chiefs, who are riding a four-game winning streak. Last Sunday Night, the Chiefs pulled out another close victory (30-27) over the Los Angeles Chargers, highlighted by the fact that QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce connected for three touchdowns in the performance. With a wave of momentum, the Chiefs now have the best record in the AFC at 8-2 SU. On Sunday, the Chiefs will get the opportunity to keep their momentum going in a favorable match-up against the struggling Los Angeles Rams at Arrowhead Stadium.

The visiting Rams have been nothing short of a disappointment this season. In fact, the Rams are having one of the worst seasons in NFL history for a defending Super Bowl winner. At just 3-7 SU, Head Coach Sean McVay has been heavily criticized, for the play of the offense, for the first time in his professional career. McVay’s unwillingness to run the football has been well-documented in recent weeks. To complicate matters, the Rams waived leading rusher Darrell Henderson on Tuesday, leaving the backfield with even more concerns. With star WR Cooper Kupp still on the shelf for possibly the rest of the season, the Rams’ offensive concerns are likely to continue, which is the reason this betting line has swelled to more than two touchdowns in favor of Kansas City.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

I must admit that I was surprised to see the Chiefs favored by more than two touchdowns. While Kansas City’s prominence in the AFC is nothing new, this Chiefs’ team does not necessarily have the same firepower as some of the offenses in years past. QB Patrick Mahomes continues to play at a high level despite the reduction in resources. Mahomes has already thrown for 3,265 yards with 28 touchdowns and seven picks on the season. TE Travis Kelce has been on fire with 855 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, I think the Chiefs are still looking for that secondary go-to option. To this point, the receiving corps has produced a carousel of performances between JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and the recently acquired talent of Kadarius Toney.

While Toney perhaps has the most talent out of the receiving options, RB Isiah Pacheco could be the emerging weapon coming out of the backfield. Pacheco’s touches have been rising recently, and the rookie eclipsed the 100-yard mark last week for the first time in his career. Head Coach Andy Reid appears committed to getting Pacheco more touches, and it will be interesting to see if the rookie can provide the Chiefs with better options going forward. However, this Sunday’s match-up against the Rams is not going to be an easy one. Despite the struggles of the Rams’ offense, the defense has still played relatively well. The Rams have elite talent at every level on defense, with DE Aaron Donald, LB Bobby Wagner, and CB Jalen Ramsey. Needless to say, the Rams’ defense will present problems for this Chiefs offense on Sunday.

While I am confident that the Rams’ defense will play well, the Rams’ offense offers nothing but uncertainty. We know the Chiefs will find ways to move the football with Mahomes behind center, but the question is, can the Rams produce enough scoring opportunities to keep this game within reach? So far, the offensive line has been awful. RB Cam Akers appears poised to take control of the backfield just weeks after he expected to be leaving the organization. With Kupp out of the picture in the passing game, underperforming WR Allen Robinson is the next man up with TE Tyler Higbee. While QB Matt Stafford is expected to return this week, there are no promising match-ups against the Chiefs’ defense to give confidence to the Rams’ offense.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Rams are 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 games
• The Rams are 1-6 SU in the last seven games
• The Rams have hit the “under” in eight of the last 12 games
• The Rams have hit the “under” in four of the last five games on the road
• The Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in the last nine games
• The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in the last seven games
• The Chiefs have hit the “over” in 12 of the last 18 games
• The Chiefs are 12-2 SU in the last 14 games at home
• The Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings against the Rams

Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction

The Rams road splits have not been impressive this season. In a difficult match-up in a touch environment, I think the Chiefs’ defense will be able to disrupt and conquer. I lean towards the Chiefs covering the spread, but I like the “under” as the best bet in this match-up.

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 44. Advice! STOP wasting your hard earned money! Start saving a TON by making the switch from overpriced -110 odds to -105 odds at BetAnySports! You’ll be so glad you made the switch!