Raiders vs. Saints: Why Vegas is the Week 17 Upset Pick
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, 12/29/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 29
Where: The Superdome
TV: Fox
Point spread: LV -1.5/NO +1.5
Money line: LV -120/NO +100
Total: 37.5
Two teams trying to figure out what they’ve got in the cupboard for next season meet when the Saints host the Raiders on Sunday afternoon at the Superdome.
Las Vegas just snapped a long-losing skid last Sunday with a win over a bad Jacksonville team. Problem is, it hurts them in the battle for the top pick in next spring’s NFL draft.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is coming home after laying an egg at Green Bay on Monday night. Do the Saints have any fight left in them?
NFL Betting Odds
The Week 17 NFL betting market opened New Orleans at -2.5 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 40. Early betting action, probably based on the Saints’ performance Monday night, then flipped Las Vegas into a 1.5-point favorite.
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Raiders Betting Preview
Las Vegas just snapped a 10-game losing skid with a 19-14 victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. The Raiders spotted the Jaguars the first seven points of the game and still trailed 14-13 through three quarters. But Vegas used a 70-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth to take the lead for good and held on from there for its first W since September.
The Raiders won both time of possession on the Jags 34:26 and the turnover battle 2-0.
In fact, last Sunday was the first game of the entire season that Las Vegas did not commit a turnover.
Still, that’s six straight games the Raiders have been held to less than 20 points.
Two games ago, Las Vegas managed just 249 yards of offense and lost to Atlanta 15-9. Three games ago, the Raiders produced 286 yards and lost to Tampa Bay 28-13.
At 3-12 overall, Las Vegas is headed toward an uncertain off-season, probably searching for yet another new head coach and maybe another quarterback.
Saints Betting Preview
Meanwhile, New Orleans is coming off its most inept performance of the season, with a 34-0 blanking at Green Bay on Monday night. The Saints, playing very shorthanded, allowed Packers touchdowns the first three times the defense hit the field. New Orleans trailed 21-0 at the half, mounted no challenge from there, and whiffed ATS as a 14-point dog.
The Saints got out-gained by Green Bay 404-196.
New Orleans has now been out-gained by four of its last six opponents and out-rushed by five of its last six foes.
The Saints lost seven games in a row into November, then won three of four. And it was nearly four out of five had they converted a late 2-point conversion two weeks ago against Washington. But they had nothing to offer Monday night at Lambeau.
At 5-10 overall, New Orleans is also headed toward an uncertain off-season, in search of yet another new head coach and possibly a new quarterback.
These teams met most recently two seasons ago, a 24-0 Saints win also at the Superdome. Andy Dalton quarterbacked New Orleans that day against current (injured) Saint Derek Carr for Las Vegas.
On the injury front, New Orleans QB Carr, RB Kamara, and WR Valdes-Scantling, all of whom missed Monday night’s game, plus C McCoy, are all listed as questionable for Sunday.
By the Numbers
Las Vegas averages 300 YPG on offense this season, including a League-low 78 YPG rushing. Defensively, the Raiders are holding opponents to 328 YPG, with 118 rushing.
New Orleans is averaging 325 YPG on offense and 121 on the ground but allowing 378 YPG on defense and 138 on the ground.
Common Opponents
These teams have played eight common opponents this season, members of the AFC West and NFC South, plus the Rams and Browns. New Orleans played those foes to 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS and -3 PPG, Las Vegas to 1-9 SU, 4-5-1 ATS and -8 PPG.
Raiders-Saints Betting Trends
Las Vegas is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS this season. In games, O’Connell took most of the snaps at QB, averaging 16 PPG.
New Orleans is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in games Rattler took most of the snaps, averaging 13 PPG.
Totals Report
The Over is 8-7 in Raiders games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
The Under is 8-7 in Saints games, which averaged 44 points.
Free NFL Betting Pick
The best unit on the field Sunday at the Superdome will be the Las Vegas defense, which has held four of its last five opponents to 329 yards or less. Also, we give the Raiders the edge in the QB comparison. Also, New Orleans is banged up on offense. We don’t like going with the betting flow, but we like Las Vegas for Sunday.
