Raiders vs. Dolphins Prediction: Is Miami Primed for a Letdown?

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 17
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL Betting Odds: LV +7.5 / Mia -7.5
Money Line: LV +275 / Mia -325
Over/Under: 44

Fifty years after playing one of the great playoff games of all time, the Dolphins and Raiders meet again, for lesser stakes, Sunday afternoon, this time down in South Florida.

Miami just picked up a much-needed victory on the other side of the country Monday night, keeping its slim playoff hopes alive.

Las Vegas, meanwhile, is playing out the string on yet another lost season.

Raiders-Dolphins Betting Preview

Las Vegas lugs a five-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at Cincinnati two Sundays ago, 41-24. The Raiders then had last weekend off.

Vegas, an 8-point underdog, played the Bengals to 10-10 deep into the first half. But they gave up a Cincinnati touchdown 30 seconds before halftime, then touchdowns on the Bengals’ first two possessions of the second half, and that was about it.

The Raiders got out-gained by Cincinnati 373-213, out-rushed 130-60, and lost time of possession 35:25. So Las Vegas has been out-gained and out-rushed by three of its last four opponents.

Meanwhile, Miami just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 23-15 win at the Rams on Monday night. The Dolphins drove the opening possession of the game 70 yards to a touchdown, led 10-6 at the half, then scored the first seven points of the second half and held on from there.

Miami actually got out-gained by Los Angeles 327-238, but a good chunk of the yardage the Dolphins defense allowed came in bend-don’t-break mode.

At 3-6 overall, the Dolphins trail 5-5 Denver by two games in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings. With eight games to go, Miami still has a glimmer of hope.

NFL Betting Trends

• Home teams are 75-72 SU and 65-80 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 105-47 SU, 78-72 ATS.
• Teams that out-rush their opponents are 106-46 SU, 100-50 ATS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 6-3 in Raiders games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.
• Unders are 6-3 in Dolphins games, which are averaging 39 points. But that average jumps to 46 in games Tagovailoa started.
• Overs are 76-75 in the NFL this season.

Touchdown Props

• Miami TE Smith: +290 to score one touchdown, +2300 to score two.
• Las Vegas WR Tucker: +450 to score one TD, +3600 to score two.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Miami gets our handicapping checkmarks in the QB comparison, with the better running game and the better defense. Their morale is probably better, too. But having said all that – this game looks like a trap. The Dolphins just won a tough game Monday night on the other side of the country. They probably think they’ve got it going on now. In our book that makes Miami a good candidate for a letdown Sunday.

Meanwhile, Minshew at least makes Las Vegas somewhat competitive; they won with him at Baltimore and gave the Rams and Chiefs good games. The Raiders are also coming off their bye week, which might help. And there’s always something funny that seems to happen in matchups like this: a brutal turnover somewhere that decides the money. We’re not calling for the outright upset here, but we do like Las Vegas plus the points.