Week 13 Betting Breakdown: Raiders vs. Chiefs Spread Pick

Las Vegas Raiders (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 13
Date/Time: Friday, November 29, 2024 at 3PM EST
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: Prime Video

The Las Vegas Raiders come to Arrowhead for a Black Friday AFC West showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders enter this at 2-9, losers at home on Sunday to the Broncos, 29-19. They have yet to win a game in their division this season, having lost to this very Chiefs team at home, 27-20, about a month ago. On Sunday, the Chiefs bounced back from their only loss of the season with a 30-27 win over the Panthers, with a last-second FG getting them over the hump against a plucky Carolina bunch. Who can come out here on the short week and get us a cover on Friday?

Tough Teams to Bet Recently

The Raiders have been no bargain at the betting windows, as is the tendency for terrible teams. They’re on a run of three straight non-covers. So even when in what seems to be a good spot, they’re no bargain. The Chiefs, however, have really gone stale from a wagering standpoint. After covering the spread in five of their first six games, they haven’t covered in five straight weeks. The Chiefs can be a dicey betting proposition. As two-time defending Super Bowl Champions, they aren’t going to get a lot of good value, especially when they default to this cruise-control mode we’ve seen them adopt at times in recent seasons. The Chiefs simply don’t care about your wagers, the spread, or your fantasy teams. They’re trying to win games, get into a good postseason spot, and then make big things happen. It’s not about week 12 or week 13 for them.

It makes it tricky betting on or against the Chiefs. It’s a short week. A 2-9 team is in town. Sure, they don’t have a lot of buffer with the one-seed and need to keep winning. A rash of unimpressive showings might light a fire where they start expending more effort. But in the end, there is often times a divergence between the agenda of the Chiefs and what those betting on them are hoping will occur. And the fact that it happened already with this matchup with the Raiders squeaking out a cover at home in week eight shows the Raiders aren’t out of this from an ATS angle. For how miserable of a season this is for Las Vegas while the Chiefs are poised for another Super Bowl run, there is one game separating them in terms of their record against the spread.

Tough Time to Get Behind the Raiders?

We saw Raiders’ quarterback Gardner Minshew go down on Sunday, with Desmond Ridder getting some work behind center and presumably in line to start this week. On one hand, we’ve actually seen Minshew be able to create a little juice aerially, alternately making big connections either with WR Jakobi Meyers or TE Brock Bowers. Losing him could cost them what little edge they did, in fact, have. At the same time, no one has really emerged from this QB carrousel of Minshew or Aidan O’Connell, and maybe having another guy of similar caliber in there won’t really affect them too much.

With all their issues and even being in the middle of a bad year where they have neither achieved success or been a solid betting option, they’ve been deceptively competitive lately. Other than a bad loss several weeks ago to the Bengals, the last five games show them being in the mix, with some late-game gaffes spoiling their chances to either win or to cover the spread. Granted, there isn’t much deflecting you can really do when in the middle of a 7-game losing streak with a lame-duck coach and having not tasted success since September, but it’s also a spot where things might look worse than they really are this week.

Good Week to Back KC?

Even with the Chiefs in the midst of an ugly stretch against the spread, their occasional apathy, a big spread in this game, and the non-threatening nature of their opponent coming, how exciting is it to get behind this Raiders’ mess right now? Mostly insulated from weather this season, it’s starting to get chilly in Kansas City. And who’s to say Desmond Ridder doesn’t go out there, throws for 150 yards and no scores, turns the ball over a few times, and puts forth a total dud? He has a few good targets with which he can work, but they certainly can’t run the ball. This is a spot where, even if the Chiefs aren’t 100% into it, what are the Raiders going to do about it? They have a one-dimensional offense led by what is now their third choice at QB. There just isn’t a ton to sink your teeth into. And for all the questions about Kansas City’s motivation and having enough oomph to cover bigger spreads, is this not a time when the Raiders may start to show some signs of resignation?

Lay the Number

I almost came into this wanting to find an angle on the Raiders. It’s just too hard. I’d rather bank on the Chiefs just getting tired of close games and deciding to lay it on thick against the Raiders than banking on the Raiders being in good shape on offense with Ridder while hoping their defense can do most of the heavy lifting. It is a big number, and the Chiefs have been awful recently from this perspective, but I’m having trouble envisioning a high-end version of the Raiders this week in Arrowhead. I’ll take the Chiefs.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 13 points.