Raiders vs. Chiefs Spread Bet – Week 16 Predictions

The Las Vegas Raiders come to Arrowhead Stadium on Monday for a Christmas Day matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders enter this AFC West showdown coming off the long week after a Thursday Night Football win over the Chargers, 63-21, a defeat so cataclysmic, the Chargers canned both their head coach and GM. After three straight home-games, they look for more of the same in a heightened road context in KC, where the Chiefs await, coming off a 27-17 win over the Patriots. That broke a two-game losing streak, as the Chiefs try to work themselves into postseason form. Who can deliver us the cover on Christmas?

A Brief Look Back

Looking back at part one when divisional teams play for the second time can be a fool’s errand, however the recency might make it more pertinent. A week 12 win for the Chiefs in Vegas, 31-17, was routine enough. It was even a little closer than the score appears, with the Raiders hanging in there well until the Chiefs created a little final-quarter separation. Mahomes was near 300 yards, Rashee Rice had a nice game, as did RB Isiah Pacheco, who scored two TDs. After missing two games, he is expected to return, but how close to 100% he’ll be remains to be seen. The Chiefs would like to get that part of their offense back, as it has been tough without him.

Lots of Moving Pieces

While we more or less know where these teams stand, it’s still not easy to get a read on where they are entering week 16. On the one hand, you want to extend some favor to the Raiders coming off a massacre of the Chargers. But is beating a sideways dysfunctional Chargers team really good ammo to substantiate a position on the road against a Chiefs team that is looking to enhance its standing in the AFC postseason picture? Or should we look at what directly preceded that, which was a string of utter offensive futility? What they scored in their last game surpassed what they had scored in their last four games combined by 17 points. Either way, it’s an offense on paper that is easy to get behind, only until you realize last week’s explosion was only the second time all year they’ve scored more than 21 points in a game. And when you have Joshua Jacobs (questionable) at running back, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers at receiver, that’s pretty bad. And a Chiefs backer this week would be within rights to forecast more of that this week.

But then what’s going on with the Chiefs? After a string of not topping 21 points in five of six games, they put up 27 against the Patriots but still failed to cover the spread for the third straight week. We’re seeing a once-vital offense starting to fray at the edges a bit, with their running game very hit-and-miss and a subdued aerial game at times. Travis Kelce has been relatively quiet, and despite Rashee Rice stepping out lately from among a group of disappointing receivers, we’re not seeing the same magical Patrick Mahomes. Their shootout appeal seems gone. Then again, these evaluations are based on the high expectations the defending Super Bowl champions established, and as division champions once again, selling them short could be a mistake.

Tough Spot for the Raiders?

We’re definitely hitting that time of year when some Christmas weather can make a trip to Arrowhead a little tougher, even on familiar divisional foes like the Raiders. Last week’s offensive showcase was a promising development, the state of the Chargers notwithstanding. Seeing QB Aidan O’Connell getting more comfortable and bringing life to a talented offense that fell flat for most of the season was nice to see. It just won’t be as easy on the road against this Chiefs’ defense. In 14 games, opponents have surpassed 21 points of scoring on the Chiefs a total of 2 times, one of those coming in week one. Opposing offenses lately simply have not gotten much business done against this defense. At home, we’ve seen them limit offenses like Detroit, Buffalo, and Philadelphia. The Raiders offense is looking at a whole different kettle of fish in this Christmas Day spot.

When the Raiders canned Josh McDaniels, there was a surge in the Raiders’ “D” with Antonio Pierce taking over as interim head coach. The last few weeks have been pretty good, with their most recent failure being at home against this very same Chiefs group. But they’ve been getting better. Maxx Crosby can be a real demon in the pass-rush, as we’ve seen that aspect of the Raiders’ profile come more to life in recent weeks. It’s just that those expecting this Raiders’ defense to be easy pickings heading down the stretch could be missing the boat.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

It’s not a good feeling right now laying a number you’d see back when the Chiefs had Tyreek Hill running around the field. The KC offense is no longer the one where big spreads hit the spot anymore. I just sense that this is a good week for them to start finding their stride a little bit. You’d think it’s a good bounce-back spot for Kelce. Pacheco should help. And I’m not really sure how good this Raiders’ offense is going to be looking this week, as opposed to last week against a defense that threw in the towel. I’ll take the leap of faith on the Chiefs this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 9.5 points.