Raiders vs. Chargers Week 1: Loot’s Betting Picks & Predictions

The Las Vegas Raiders come to SoFi Stadium on Sunday for a week one AFC West showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s one of just a few Week 1 divisional matchups on the schedule, as these teams start their seasons against a familiar foe. It was a tale of two very different games in ’23, with the Bolts beating the Raiders 24-17 early in the season before a Raiders team that got hot toward the end of last season under interim head coach Antonio Pierce got the Chargers 63-21, in their second game. Pierce booked the full-fledged head coach gig this past offseason, while the Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh back after a long absence from the NFL coaching ranks.

Breaking Down the Changes

The Raiders’ offense will have a new look this season. Gardner Minshew will start at QB, and one of his new weapons will be high first-round draftee TE Brock Bowers, who could become an immediate threat, though he could be a little banged-up. They still have that nice 1-2 punch at WR with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but Joshua Jacobs is gone. We’ll see if incoming Alexander Mattison and pre-existing Zamir White can keep that part of the game intact. And Adams is still a weapon, while Minshew gives their aerial-game more bite. They’re still a bit thin at receiver, and a run-game might not be that great.

The changes are even more wide-reaching on a Chargers’ offense, which is still led by Justin Herbert. But Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler are all gone. We will see if guys like Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and rookie Ladd McConkey can somehow replace all that production. Will Dissly should slide into the TE role, and we just see a lot of change on offense, and not a ton of it is terribly exciting. No big names were brought in, and we’ll see what Harbaugh and his staff can extract from these guys. The former Baltimore tandem at RB in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins coming in is helpful, as could be the veteran know-how of receiver DJ Chark (questionable). It’s still not all that promising on the surface.

Things to Consider

While the Raiders are dealing with some changes, the Chargers are really working on a lot of new stuff. Sure, some of their line is intact, along with their QB and a few key receivers, but all the other faces are new. That goes along with a new coaching staff and while the change is welcome considering the last staff that was in town, there’s a lot going on and sometimes it takes a second for things to manifest. To Harbaugh’s credit, though, the changes he makes have taken hold quickly in his coaching career, notably when he took a dilapidated 49ers’ team and got them to the NFC title game in his first season at the helm.

While not a high-profile signing, acquiring Minshew upgrades the Raiders at QB after working with Aidan O’Connell most of last season. Jacobs being gone isn’t great, but he had not been the same guy all last season, and maybe they get someone else to step up in the passing game. I look for Minshew to enhance the performance of Adams this season, and against the Chargers, they should be able to get some things done against a defense that can struggle despite all their talent. Another mini-point to consider is that those who have been to these Raiders-Chargers games in Inglewood will attest that it really doesn’t feel like much of a road game for the Silver and Black when they come into town. And that goes for a lot of Chargers’ home games where they don’t really receive the same benefit as other home-teams.

Defense

Joey Bosa (questionable) and Khalil Mack are still one of the top pass-rushing duos in the league, and the Raiders’ offensive line might struggle in this spot, as a few of those spots are iffy along the Vegas front. The Chargers can still be beaten over the top, which the Raiders will be trying to do with Adams running loose. They have talent with Asante Samuel and Derwin James back there, but they can still be beaten. We’ll see if first-time NFL coach, new DC Jesse Minter can see his results resonate as they did with Michigan when he was with Harbaugh.

The Raiders added Christian Wilkins, who beefs up their interior defensive line. Along with Maxx Crosby, they’re starting to develop some fire up-front. That can be said for their whole defense, which was really a strong suit last season as their offense sagged. With the Chargers boosting their O-line with high draft pick T Joe Alt, that will be a point of emphasis that the Raiders’ defensive front might struggle with this week. But with Herbert working with a new backfield and a pretty thin receiver core, the Raiders’ defense should be able to pounce on any mistakes.

Take the Home Favorite

It does have the look of a competitive divisional game with enough newness on both sides to make a wide variety of outcomes seem almost equally viable. I think having the superior quarterback, while also being a tick stronger along both lines of scrimmage, could go a long way in this one for the Chargers, as the big names on defense get their pound of flesh, as well. And not that Harbaugh and a new coaching staff can just wave their magic wands and make it all better, but it had seemed like the Bolts were handcuffed the last few years, and maybe here we get a little taste of what’s to come. I’ll take the Chargers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 3 points.