Raiders vs. Broncos: Loot’s Week 5 NFL Picks and Predictions

Las Vegas Raiders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 5

Date/Time: Sunday, October 5, 2024 at 4:05PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: Fox

The Las Vegas Raiders come to Mile High for an AFC West battle with the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Both teams scored big wins this past Sunday to even their respective slates at 2-2 on the season. For the Broncos, it was their second win in a row, both on the road, beating the Jets on Sunday, 10-9, in a really resourceful and hard-fought win. The Raiders, meanwhile, scored a win at home, beating Cleveland 20-16, with the defense really controlling the latter half of the game. Which team can peek their noses above .500 this week in this divisional battle out of Mile High?

What to Make of Denver

After a rough opening to the season for Denver with issues on both sides of the ball, this recent two-game run of wins on the road took some aback. For the Bucs, it was their only loss of the season, while the Jets were 8.5-point favorites at home last week. On Sunday, rookie quarterback Bo Nix had his first TD through the air but had only 60 yards of passing on the day. They were able to run the ball well, but Javonte Williams has still been slow out of the gates this season. Offensively, things don’t figure to really shine with the Broncos this season.

The main culprit for this little mini-spurt from Denver is a defense that really seemed to snap into form after a rough week one showing against Seattle. Since then, they’ve allowed 29 total points in their last three games. They’ve been good against both the run and the pass. We see a big pass-rush component beginning to form on this side of the ball, with 12 quarterback sacks in the last two games. They now pit that same defense against Gardner Minshew and the struggling Raiders’ offense. The Raiders can’t run the ball well, and so far, it’s been hard for them to get anything going aerially. Now Davante Adams missed the last game and may still be out. Is this the week to bank on a road Raiders offense?

Raiders: Business Back to Normal?

Sunday was an important development for a Raiders’ team that had really bottomed out the previous week in a 36-22 loss to the Panthers. Still, they were down 10-0 and had to battle back against a bad Browns team. After a dicey start, their defense did well to keep the Browns’ offense from gaining much foothold. Despite missing some key guys like Maxx Crosby, they got it together and got a turnover, rushed the passer some, and kept the Cleveland offense off the board for the final three-quarters of the game.

Still, the offense is a mess. Whatever they’re trying to do with the run game isn’t working, and on Sunday, Zamir White coughed up a fumble that was brought back for a TD. They’re reduced to the occasional burst from the backfield, with it being a rare sight this season between Alexander Mattison and White. Without Adams, they still have growing tight end Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker, but it’s been a real grind for the most part. Sometimes, with Minshew over the course of his career, you get the occasional burst of production, so maybe it’s due. But it’s worth watching Adams’ status leading up to the game.

Which Offense Can Have Success?

Thus far, neither defense is foolproof. But maybe Denver has shown their solid defensive play can translate at higher levels, as well as being able to travel. The Raiders have shown flashes here and there, with last week being one of their better ones, but watching Andy Dalton and Carolina have their way with this bunch shows they’re hardly invulnerable. Against Denver, however, they won’t need to be. The source of optimism on that side of the ball is hard to identify. You could subscribe to the notion that Bo Nix will grow more comfortable or the run-game can get cooking, but one would like to see it before putting stock in that being something that can actually happen.

The Raiders’ edge in this game comes from their offense. And watching them this season, that’s not something you want to be pinning your hopes on for the most part. Still, the potential is at least there for something good to happen. Again, Minshew has had big games in this league. So has Meyers. Bowers could be one of the next big things at tight end. They have X-factors like Tre Tucker, who can make big plays. But what if this Denver pass-rush is for real and Minshew is dealing with that in his face all game long? At that point, maybe Denver can get away with not having a dynamic offense. And who’s to say that they can’t reach a more high-end version of what they’re capable of against a Raiders’ defense dealing with personnel issues on the road?

Take the Points on the Small Home Dog

I think the Raiders’ defense might benefit again this week from having one of the easier matchups they will have on paper all season. This is a two-week period where this Raiders’ defense can build up some confidence after losing face at points this season. I just think between their quarterback issues, the lack of a running game, and their injuries, that I’m not too gung-ho about getting less than field goal on the road against a team that has gotten on a little roll and found some mojo. I’ll lay the small number on the Broncos and see you at the window.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 2.5 points.