Raiders vs. Broncos Pick – Is Wilson Washed Up?

Las Vegas Raiders (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Week 1 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:25PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

Point Spread: LV +4/DEN -4 (Bovada – Home of the web’s most incredible live betting platform!)

Over/Under Total: 44

The Las Vegas Raiders meet the Denver Broncos at Mile High in a week one AFC West battle. Both teams look to kick their seasons off well this week and put a rough 2022 behind them, with the Raiders winning six games and the Broncos winning five. Two of the Raiders’ wins came in their two games against the Broncos, who really produced a dud despite ample hope with Russell Wilson coming into town. In fact, the Raiders have now beaten their division rival six times in a row. Can the Broncos find a way to get it on the right track? The Raiders will be entering the season with a new quarterback for the first time in years and hope some of the changes they made can transform their fortunes. Who can get us the cover at Mile High in week one?

Accounting for Changes

Coming off bad seasons, each team has a lot of moving pieces heading into the new season. The Raiders didn’t really make a ton of moves other than seeing their QB of almost a decade, Derek Carr, go to the Saints. In comes Jimmy Garoppolo, and we’ll see if he can extract the same things out of a Raiders’ offense that he did when he was with the Niners. The Broncos have a new head coach in, the well-respected Sean Payton. You’d think his competence would give the Broncos an edge they lacked last season with sometimes shambolic game calls and management. But alas, coaching wasn’t their only issue last season. All told it’s a reasonable spot for both teams in familiar surroundings with division opposition to see if the changes register well.

Raiders Offense Looking to Make a Statement

This Vegas offense did well against Denver last season, and Garoppolo is stepping into a nice situation, being able to lean on a difference-making back like Joshua Jacobs and receivers like Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow. They added TE Austin Hooper, along with rookie Michael Mayer from Notre Dame. On paper, it’s an offense that could take it to a Denver defense that has some holes, especially up-front. They added Frank Clark, and new coordinator Vance Joseph should get them to be more aggressive. Patrick Surtain, II. is one of the best corners in the NFL and leads a secondary that should be pretty good. A bad season last season by Wilson and this Denver offense may have camouflaged some of the real strides made on the other side of the ball.

Good Litmus Test for Wilson

Ideally, as a Denver fan, you’d like to see Wilson and this Denver offense hit the ground running against this Las Vegas defense. Maxx Crosby appears to be the only standout from a lackluster group. And they will be going against what should be an improved Denver offensive line that added a few nice pieces in the offseason. That line, along with the leadership of Payton, should help Wilson and this offense. Getting Javonte Williams back is big, and seeing this receiver crew come alive is key. You’d think this is as good a spot as any for Denver to showcase the improvements made. Part of you wonders if we’re going to see the same things—an over-the-hill Wilson who isn’t aging like wine, an injury-prone backfield, and receivers who have good games sandwiched with games where they’re basically invisible. While it’s just one game, I’d imagine Denver is eager to get off offensively in this spot, or we could already hear some alarm bells.

Again, other than Crosby, the Raiders are rather thin. They added Tyree Wilson with a high draft pick, but poor drafts and shaky signings have led to this unit being short on talent. Chandler Jones could have a bounce-back season after a dud last year. The rookie Wilson could be an impactful player. But even getting Marcus Peters last season didn’t help a secondary that is in real disarray. The interior line and entire middle are comprised of guys who would likely not be in heavy rotation on most other defenses. It creates a situation where Denver should have some success both running and throwing the ball. Still, in two games against the Raiders last year, they managed 39 combined points, with a lot of the key roles in this equation occupied by the same cast. Has enough changed? Or are we steeped in a fallacy that a new coach and some pieces up-front are going to transform this Denver offense into a real factor?

Picking Your Poison

To go with Denver in this spot, you’re forecasting some better offensive results against a team that has beaten them six times in a row, laying points to boot. You might be basing it on an iffy premise as if Sean Payton can just come in and wave his wand, and suddenly Wilson isn’t getting old anymore, and receivers who have 4-5 good games a year with a dozen forgettable ones suddenly become consistent factors. But they do have a better defense, are stronger in the trenches on both sides and have the more talented overall roster. With the Raiders, you’re getting more glaring flaws, namely their “D” and their deficits along the line of scrimmage. But the offense is a little more bankable, albeit with a new face in Garoppolo, with a dynamite three-pack of receivers and a big-game back, an improved tight end corps, and an O-line that actually came on a little in the second half of last season.

Take the Points

I think a game one situation like this where one team is working in a new system while the other team is working in a new quarterback, along with the altitude, almost makes me think this will be a bit of a grind. Denver is dealing with injuries already, with WR Jerry Jeudy carted off in practice with a hamstring injury. It also isn’t promising. It’s just that with what seems like a close-type game with so many game elements in the air, I’m inclined to take a Raiders team with four points. I’m going with the Las Vegas Raiders in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders plus 4 points.