Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans Pick 8/25/19

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS), 8/25/19
Time: 8 pm ET Sunday, Aug. 25
Where: LP Field, Nashville, TN
TV: NBC

Point spread: Titans -2.5 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Titans -145/Steelers +125
Over/Under: 40

The Steelers are 30-22 in exhibition games under Coach Tomlin, and 2-0 this season, while the Titans are just 105 in the pre-season under Coach Vrabel, heading into this Week 3 tussle in Nashville Sunday night. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 3’s NFL exhibition betting odds opened Tennessee at around -2 over Pittsburgh, with an over/under of 40. Early betting action then bumped the Titans to -2.5.

Steelers vs. Titans Set-Up

Pittsburgh opened its 2019 exhibition season with a 30-28 victory over Tampa Bay two weeks ago, then beat Kansas City last week 17-7. The Steelers spotted the Buccaneers the first seven points of the game, then used a 30-9 run spanning the halves to take control, although they needed a stop on a late Tampa 2-point conversion attempt to avoid overtime. Pittsburgh then broke a 7-7 tie against the Chiefs with ten fourth-quarter points to claim that win.

The Steelers got out-gained by Tampa Bay 479-339, although a lot of the yardage Pittsburgh gave up came while protecting a lead. Pittsburgh then out-gained KC 329-315.

Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has not played this pre-season yet. In his place back-ups Josh Dobbs, Mason Rudolph, and Devlin Hodges are a combined 36/60 passing for 465 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception.

Roethlisberger is expected to start Sunday night, but how long he’ll play is uncertain.

Tennessee, meanwhile, opened its exhibition slate with a 27-10 win at Philadelphia two weeks ago, then lost at home to New England last week 22-17. The Titans trailed the Eagles early in that game 10-6, then scored the final three touchdowns of the game. Tennessee then led the Patriots at the half 17-8 but lost the second half 14-0.

The Titans out-gained Philadelphia 388-227 and dominated time of possession by a 38/22 split. Tennessee then got out-gained by New England 363-306.

Starting QB Marcus Mariota played the first series of the game against the Eagles, then played the first three series against the Patriots. In relief back-ups, Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside are a combined

37/59 passing for 424 yards and five touchdowns, with zero picks.

We expect Mariota to play at least the first quarter Sunday night, before turning things over to the bullpen.

These teams also met in Week 3 of the exhibition season last year, a 16-6 Pittsburgh victory. The last time they met for real came back two seasons ago, a 40-17 Steelers win, although that game was closer than that final score might indicate.

NFL Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh is 30-22 SU, 24-26-2 ATS over 12-plus exhibition seasons under Coach Tomlin.
• Tennessee is 1-5 both SU and ATS in one-plus exhibition seasons under Coach Vrabel.

Totals Report

Pittsburgh’s win over Tampa two weeks ago played over a total of 37, while the win over Kansas City last week played under a total of 46.

Tennessee’s win over Philadelphia two weeks ago pushed a total of 37, and the loss to New England last week played under a total of 42.

Through Thursday’s action unders are 20-18 during this NFL exhibition season.

Free NFL Pick

If this game goes like Thursday night’s exhibition games played out starters will play less than they’ve done over recent seasons. The risk of injury is just too much. However, while the Steelers quarterback situation is set in stone the Titans’ isn’t; Tannehill could make a play to take over for a skittish Mariota. And that factor could make all the difference in this game. We’ll take Tennessee here for our free NFL exhibition pick.