Pittsburgh Steelers Season Wins Predictions Plus Week 1 Bet

Prognosticating Pittsburgh Plays Poorly

After watching two weeks of the NFL preseason I decided to add one more Regular Season Wins bet to my dance card.

I like the way Denver looks.
I looked at them as a possible Over (I think Bo Nix is going to do very well at QB.)

I don’t like the way Pittsburgh looks.
I think they’re going to be terrible.
I looked at them as a possible Under.

I approached these two differently than I did my previous Regular Season Wins bets (Cin Under 10′, USC Under 7′, Seattle Under 7′, NYG Un 6′.)
For those totals, I looked at the number the books set first, then I did my research on the team’s roster and schedule.

This time I didn’t look at the book’s numbers at all.
I looked at the team’s schedules first.
I marked a capital W next to the games I thought they would win. The games I thought they had a 50/50 chance of winning I marked with a lowercase w.
Then I added up the W’s and w’s and matched them up to the number the books are offering.

Here’s what I have.
For Denver my number is 4′.
The books made it 5′.
For Pittsburgh my number is 4.
The books made it 8′.

Guess which one I bet.

I believe Sean Payton will turn this Denver team around in his second year (the guy has never won less than seven games in any season as a head coach) but I just can’t find six wins on their schedule.

To win the Over wager I was looking at, the Broncos have to win two more games than my estimate.

To beat the Under wager I was looking at, the Steelers have to win five more games than my estimate on them. I can be off by four games and still win that wager. I’m likely off by one or two, but four?
I don’t think so.

Here’s how I marked the Steelers schedule.
@Atlanta
@Denver w
Los Angeles Chargers W
@Indianapolis
Dallas
@Las Vegas w
New York Jets
New York Giants W
@Washington w
Baltimore w
@Cleveland
@Cincinnati
Cleveland w
@Philadelphia
@Baltimore
Kansas City
Cincinnati w

I have the Falcons beating them at home in Atlanta.
I give them a 50/50 chance in game two. Denver is a tough stadium play at.
It’s a gimme that they’ll beat the Chargers and Giants at home in Pittsburgh, but I don’t see any other sure wins for them.

It’s a gimme that they’re not going to beat KC.
A split with their three divisional rivals is most likely but also possible they can get swept by either one or all three.

In my column recommending different ways to look for teams to play season win bets on, I mentioned playing the Under on teams with a coach on the hot seat.
The whispering about Tomlin’s jobs security started two years ago when the Steelers finished 9-8 and didn’t make the playoffs. They were heard again last year when they lost three straight down the stretch and were in danger of missing the playoffs again before winning their final three. They made the postseason but got eliminated in the wild card round.

Division-wise last year they swept their rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, an oddity that’s definitely not going to happen again this year. They won the first game at home in Pittsburgh, 17-10.
They won the second game by the same score at Baltimore, but only because it was the last game of the season and with their playoff spot locked up the Ravens sat Lamar Jackson and other starters.

They also swept Cincinnati but got lucky because their games with the Bengals were late in the season after Joe Burrow got KO’d. They’re not going to sweep them this year, even if Burrow goes down again.

Baltimore and Cincinnati regular season wins are both set at 10′, two games higher than Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s number is the same as Pittsburgh’s, 8′.

Stats and schedules aside, I wagered this Pittsburgh team Under largely because they’re entering the season without a reliable quarterback.

I think Russell Wilson is shot.
Watching him last year reminded me of a boxer at the end of his career. Fighters seemingly grow old in one night, in one fight. You can see the difference in the ring. The reflexes are a little slower, the power is gone.
Most importantly, the hunger is gone.
When you’re young and poor it’s easy to get out of bed to do your road work at 5:00 a.m. before heading into the gym to train all day.
But after you’ve risen to the top and your bank account has six or seven zeros in it, when the alarm goes off at 5:00 a.m. you hit the snooze button.
The hunger is gone.
And that’s where I see Russell Wilson.
His best days behind him and it’s all downhill from here on in.

And Fields? Justin is too one-dimensional.
We saw it again last week in the second game of the preseason. Buffalo allowed Fields a few good runs before they made a change to the defense and put a spy on him. After that he was no longer effective.
Take away the run and he’s not going to beat you with his arm.
When Russell stumbles and Tomlin turns to Fields, Pittsburgh fans are going to see exactly why Chicago dumped him.

There’s a reason quarterbacks are the most high profile, most highly paid player in the sport. It’s because as the quarterback goes, so goes the team.
And with Russell and Fields at quarterback this Pittsburgh team is going nowhere.

I don’t see either of these two quarterbacks getting Pittsburgh to nine wins and the whispers about Tomlin are going to begin again.

My lack of faith in the Steelers this year is so strong I’m not only taking them Under for season wins but I’m also betting against them in week one. Right now you can get the Atlanta Falcons at home -2′. This will be -3 by kickoff so I’m buying it now.
The best price on Pittsburgh’s Regular Season Wins is at our sponsor BetUS. Right now you can get it at -135 when other sites have it as high as -145. If you’re going to lay your money out get the best price possible, have multiple books to bet at!

Today’s plays:

Pittsburgh regular season wins under 8′, -135
Atl -2′, -107