Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Pick: Can the Bills cover 10?

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (11-6, 7-9-1), 1/14/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 14

Where: Highmark Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: Pitt +10/Buff -10

Money line: Pit +410/Buf -550

Total: 36.5

AFC postseason regulars meet when the AFC East champion Bills host the wild-card Steelers for a wild-card bout on Sunday afternoon at Orchard Park.

Both these teams looked like they might not make the playoffs not too long ago, but both finished well, Buffalo winning its last five games and Pittsburgh its last three, to reach wild-card weekend.

But the oddsmakers seem to think the Bills own a significant advantage heading into this game, opening the betting with a double-digit point spread.

Who do we like for our free NFL playoffs betting pick?

NFL Playoffs Betting Odds

The NFL wild-card weekend betting market opened Buffalo as a 10-point favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 35.5. Early betting action then bumped that total to 36.5, despite a weather forecast calling for cold and windy conditions for Sunday.

Steelers Betting Preview

Pittsburgh rides a three-game winning streak into this wild-card weekend after beating Baltimore last Saturday 17-10. The Steelers then qualified for the playoffs when Jacksonville laid its last egg of the season Sunday at Tennessee.

Pittsburgh, playing against a Ravens team that sat almost half its starters, including QB Jackson, struggled most of the way. But the Steelers broke a 7-7 tie with a long Rudolph-Johnson touchdown connection early in the fourth quarter, added a field goal, and hung on from there.

So Pittsburgh is back in the postseason after missing out last season.

And there were calls for Coach Tomlin to be canned a couple of months ago.

The Steelers started 7-4 this season, almost despite themselves. Poor QB play, no running game, and the defense was not good. Then it seemed like reality was setting in when Pittsburgh lost three straight to Arizona, New England, and Indianapolis, none of which made the playoffs.

The Steelers then beat Cincinnati, which was playing without QB Burrow, and then won a tough game out at Seattle. Pittsburgh then caught a big break when it played a Baltimore team that had already clinched the top seed in the AFC and had nothing to play for.

What would have been the out-come of that game had the Ravens needed it? Let’s just say we would have bet Baltimore.

The Steelers only out-gained five of their 17 opponents this season. However, all five of those occasions came over their last seven games. Pittsburgh also got its running game going over the latter part of the season and out-rushed eight of its last ten foes.

The Steelers started three guys at QB this season but in the end Mason Rudolph led the team to those last three victories.

Bills Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Buffalo rides a five-game winning streak into Sunday after beating Miami Sunday night 21-14. The victory gave the Bills their fourth straight AFC East title.

Buffalo trailed the Dolphins 14-7 through three quarters because QB Allen kept turning the ball over. But a 96-yard punt return for a score tied the game, an Allen touchdown pass with seven minutes left gave the Bills the lead and they hung on from there.

Buffalo out-gained Miami 473-275, although it should be noted the Dolphins played without RB Mostert and WR Waddle.

Buffalo and Miami both finished 11-6, but the Bills won the tie-breaker with the season sweep of the Dolphins.

Buffalo only sat at 6-6 heading into December and looked very iffy as far as the playoffs were concerned. But the Bills then won a big game at Kansas City, destroyed Dallas, held off the Chargers and Patriots, then beat Miami.

Buffalo out-gained six of its last eight opponents and out-rushed nine of its last ten foes.

On the injury front, Pittsburgh lists both LB Watt and DB Fitzpatrick as questionable for Sunday.

Steelers-Bills Recent History

These teams have met each of the last four seasons, Buffalo going 3-1 in both SU and ATS. Most recently, back in October of last season, the Bills bounced Pittsburgh 38-3 also at Orchard Park.

Allen threw four touchdown passes that day for Buffalo, which racked up 552 yards of offense.

Common Opponents

These teams played four common opponents this season: the Raiders, the Jaguars, the Bengals, and the Patriots. Pittsburgh played those foes to 3-2 SU and ATS and +9 yards per game, Buffalo to 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS and +3 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Double-digit favorites played 21-7 SU, 14-14 ATS in the NFL this season.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 both SU and ATS this season with Rudolph as the starter at QB, averaging 27 PPG.

Totals Report

• The Unders played 11-6 in Steelers games this season, which averaged 37 total points.
• The Unders also played 11-6 in Bills games, which averaged 45 points.
• This season, the Unders played 147-125 (54 percent) in the NFL.
• The Overs played 5-1 on wild-card weekend last season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Buffalo ranks 4th in the League in total offense and 9th in total defense; Pittsburgh ranks 25th in offense and 21st in defense. And that’s almost enough for us right there. The Bills look dangerous heading into these playoffs. Often, it seems they’re their own worst enemy, or at least QB Allen, with his turnovers. Then he makes a couple of plays that maybe only one or two other guys in the League can make, and all is well. Buffalo owns checkmarks all over our handicapping page and impressed us when they thoroughly outplayed the Cowboys a few weeks ago. And Dallas is better than Pittsburgh. Coach Tomlin pulled off another neat trick with this Steelers team just making the playoffs, but their season ends Sunday. We’re betting on the Bills, minus the points.

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