Patriots vs. Jets: Loot Levinson’s TNF Pick

New England Patriots (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 3

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 19, 2024 at 8:15PM EDT

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

TV: Prime Video

Thursday Night Football brings us a week 3 AFC East showdown, as the New England Patriots visit the New York Jets in a battle of 1-1 teams. Both teams were in close, hard-fought battles in week two, making this short week turnaround a bit demanding even if it’s still very early in the season. Last Sunday saw the Jets and Aaron Rodgers come from behind to beat the Titans on the road, 24-17, showing grit and late-game clutch on both sides of the ball. The Patriots, meanwhile, hung in there nicely in a back-and-forth battle with the Seahawks, eventually losing in overtime, 23-20. Who can get on track on the short week and get us the cover in East Rutherford?

Undervaluing the Patriots

The consensus heading into the season was that the Patriots were going to be pretty bad in this transition season—their first in forever without both Brady and Belichick. And at first glance, it’s hard to think otherwise—a team devoid of any real flashy talent with more or less a journeyman in Jacoby Brissett starting at quarterback, with high draft pick Drake Maye waiting in the wings. But a closer look reveals a team that might not be half-bad, with a serviceable defense led by a guy growing into a top corner in Christian Gonzalez, along with a decent offense that has reared its head these first few weeks. We saw rookie receiver Ja’Lynn Polk get his first TD last week. Hunter Henry can still have a big game here and there. We’ve seen Rhamondre Stevenson get off to a fast start with two good games, with Antonio Gibson working himself into the fold with a big game last week. A one-two punch out of the backfield could really do wonders for this team. While we saw the Jets do a little better against the run against the Titans last week, they still don’t appear to be great in that area, leaving a possible avenue to success for the Pats this week. They Jets also lost edge player Jermaine Johnson, a key part of their front and with Haason Reddick holding out, that D-line isn’t in that great of shape.

In order to flex that run-game, however, the Patriots are going to need to go on the road here and prevent Aaron Rodgers and the Jets from taking over the game and forcing the Patriots to come out of character. One could be of two minds when watching the Jets in their first two weeks. Maybe they aren’t that good, as we’ve seen an on-and-off Rodgers through two games, showing his old flair, while also going long stretches where nothing good is happening. But we see him forming a nice cast, with guys like Allen Lazard and Braelon Allen each having big games already, with Breece Hall chipping in and Garrett Wilson waiting to be unleashed. With Rodgers having presumably worked off some rust in these first two weeks, will we see him and this cast start to gel? Or is an ugly loss to the Niners and a big struggle with a not-so-great Titans team bad signs we should be taking to heart?

X-Factors

Not that the Jets didn’t have to grind out a tough win on both sides of the ball on Sunday, but will a protracted overtime battle with the Seahawks cost the Patriots as they take to the road for this TNF game? With two games on the road to start the season, will the Jets and Rodgers elevate their form a little bit in their belated home opener? Or are we looking at a Patriots team that collectively surpasses their individual pieces, resourcefully grinding out cover after cover, leaving those who take stands against them chasing their tail? We’re only two games deep and this decent-looking start to the season could be a forgotten memory by season’s end. But against imperfect teams and works-in-progress like the Jets, an overachieving defense that keeps things in the ballpark, along with a good run-game, could be enough to get a lot of good things done.

Hard to Overlook Horsepower

With all due reverence to the capable Brissett, the idea of Aaron Rodgers snapping back into form or close to it would create quite a gap in that category. And that’s before you get to the disparity in the weaponry the respective quarterbacks possess. With the Patriots, you have Stevenson and Gibson in the backfield and an aerial corps mostly comprised of unproven youngsters and outcasts from other teams. Meanwhile, the Jets have proven weapons like Hall and Wilson and also proven talent like Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin, and Lazard. And with 20-year old rookie Braelon Allen scoring two TDs last week, it’s a lot of firepower forming on that side of the ball. At home, in front of a crowd encouraged from last week’s win, it seems like a spot where some of this clearcut superior offense can register.

Take the Home Favorite

Just based on recent history, the lopsided nature of this rivalry in New England’s favor doesn’t make it easy to select the Jets as favorites, even if most of the faces are new. Beyond that is a decent New England start that gives one pause. I still think that even if the Jets don’t end up in good shape by the end of the season, they’re in a good spot here—facing a familiar tormentor, but one that is diminished from its former stature. The Jets know this would be big, exorcising the Patriots demon, while getting to 2-1. I expect an energetic showing in their home opener, as the Jets get the win and cover on Thursday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the New York Jets minus 6.5 points.

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