Patriots vs. Dolphins: Week 12 Point Spread Prediction

Current Lines

Game Overview

The Miami Dolphins, trying to climb back into the AFC playoff picture, shoot for a third straight victory when they host the rival Patriots Sunday afternoon in South Florida.

The Dolphins were almost dead a couple weeks ago but got their starting quarterback back and now play with renwed hope.

Meanwhile New England is struggling this season, its first with the new head coach and rookie starting QB, but playing better as of late.

These teams played a close game earlier this season but neither starting QB participated. So this will be the first match-up between former No. 5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa and this year’s No. 3 pick Drake Maye.

Opening Lines

This week’s NFL betting market opened Miami at -7.5 over New England, with an O/U of right around 44. Early betting action shaved the hook off that line.

Patriots Analysis

New England is trying to bounce back this week after taking a tough 28-22 loss at home to the Rams last Sunday. The Patriots, catching four points as home dogs, scored the first seven points of the game. New England later fell down 28-13, got back to within one score with five minutes left but could get no closer.

The Patriots actually ran 21 more plays than Los Angeles and won time of possession by a 37:23 split. But they also lost the turnover battle 2-0, which cost them seven points.

A month ago New England broke a six-game losing skid with a 25-22 win over the Jets. The Patriots then lost in overtime at Tennessee 20-17, then won at Chicago 19-3, before losing last week.

At 3-8 on the season New England is playing for the future. But the Patriots also only need two more wins over their last six games to play over their season betting total of 4.5.

Dolphins Analysis

Meanwhile the Dolphins own consecutive victories for the first time this season after beating Las Vegas last Sunday 34-19. Miami, favored at -8, drove the opening possession of the game 70 yards to a touchdown and never trailed. The Dolphins later allowed the Raiders to get within one score with five minutes left but tacked on 10 insurance points to secure the win and the cover.

Miami out-gained Vegas 353-328 and converted 8/12 on 3rd downs.

On the prop board Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith scored two touchdowns, which paid off at +2300.

Two weeks ago Miami beat the Rams out in Los Angeles 23-15.

So the Dolphins are now 3-3 both SU and ATS this season with Tagovailoa at QB, averaging 23 PPG.

At 4-6 overall Miami only trails 6-5 Denver by a game and a half in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings. So they’re not out of anything yet.

Injury Report

On the injury front the Dolphins list two starters along the offensive line and two from the secondary as questionable for Sunday while New England lists four defensive starters, two up front and two in the back, as the same.

Series History

Miami is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over the last eight meetings between these teams. Last year the Dolphins swept the two games from the Patriots by scores of 24-17 and 31-17, then took the first meeting of this season back in October 15-10.

Tyler Huntley quarterbacked Miami in that game six weeks ago against Jacoby Brissett for New England.

Key Trends

• Home teams are 83-78 SU, 73-86 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 116-50 SU, 88-76 ATS.

Totals Trends

• The overs are 6-5 in Patriots games this season, averaging 39 points
• The unders are 6-4 in Dolphins games, averaging 40 points
• The unders are 6-2-1 over the last nine meetings
• Overs are 84-81 in the NFL this season

The Pick

Miami gets our handicapping check-marks in the QB comparison, with the better running game, the better defense and the better run defense. The Dolphins also impressed us by avoiding a letdown last week, coming off that tough win out in LA the previous Monday night. And while Tagovailoa gets much of the credit when Miami clicks – and yes, he deserves a good share – the Dolphins rank 11th in the League in rushing and 9th in total defense. Meanwhile we like some of the things we’ve seen from New England over the last month or so; we’re just not big on their chances this week. We’re giving the points with Miami.

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