Patriots vs. Bengals Predictions: Can New England Cover in Week 1?

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – NFL Week 1 Betting Pick & Predictions

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 8

Where: Paycor Stadium

TV: CBS

NFL Betting Odds

• Point Spread: NE +8/Cin -8
• Money Line: Pats +320/Cinci -400
• Over/Under: 41 points

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New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals Game Preview

After 18 playoff appearances, nine conference championships, and six Super Bowl victories, the New England Patriots begin the post-Belichick era when they visit Cincinnati to take on the Bengals Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots are now led by former linebacker Jerod Mayo and are projected to struggle this season with the lowest wins over/under on the board at 4.5. The Bengals, meanwhile, are looking to return to the playoffs after narrowly missing out last season.

NFL Betting Line Movement

The Week 1 NFL betting market opened Cincinnati at -9 over New England, with an over/under of 42. Early action brought the spread down to -8 and the total to 41 points.

Patriots Betting Outlook

Last season, the New England Patriots endured their worst record in 30 years, finishing 4-13. The Patriots lost several close games, but despite that, they upset playoff-bound teams like Buffalo and Pittsburgh. With a new head coach in Jerod Mayo, the Patriots look to rebuild their offense and defense.

New England made significant changes in the draft, selecting North Carolina QB Drake Maye with the No. 3 overall pick, but they’ll begin this season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Patriots are currently +8500 to win the AFC and +15000 to win the Super Bowl, with a wins over/under of 4.5.

Bengals Betting Outlook

The Cincinnati Bengals narrowly missed the playoffs last season, finishing 9-8. An injury to QB Joe Burrow in November derailed their playoff hopes, despite a strong performance from backup QB Jake Browning. Cincinnati is looking to bounce back and challenge for a playoff spot once again.

The Bengals are currently lined at +700 to win the AFC and +1300 to win the Super Bowl, with a wins over/under of 10.5. While they lost key players like RB Joe Mixon and WR Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati will hope for a healthy season from Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase.

By the Numbers: Key Stats from Last Season

• New England Patriots: Ranked 30th in total offense (276 YPG), 26th in rushing (96 YPG), 7th in defense (302 YPG allowed), and 4th against the run (93 YPG allowed).
• Cincinnati Bengals: Ranked 22nd in total offense (319 YPG), 31st in rushing (90 YPG), 31st in defense (375 YPG allowed), and 26th against the run (126 YPG allowed).

Patriots-Bengals Recent Matchups

New England holds a 10-3 record over the last 13 meetings with Cincinnati, although much of that was during the Tom Brady era. The most recent matchup came two seasons ago when the Bengals defeated the Patriots 22-18 in Foxboro, with Joe Burrow leading Cincinnati against Mac Jones.

NFL Betting Trends to Watch

• New England is 29-38 SU and 30-37 ATS since Tom Brady left the team.
• Cincinnati is 29-22-1 SU and 25-26-1 ATS with Joe Burrow as the starting QB.

Totals Report

• Unders played 10-7 in Patriots games last season, averaging 35 total points per game.
• Overs played 10-7 in Bengals games last season, averaging 44 total points per game.
• Unders played 12-4 in NFL Week 1 games last season.

Free NFL Betting Pick: Patriots +8

Cincinnati has the advantage at quarterback, but New England has the better running game and defense. While Jacoby Brissett isn’t an elite QB, he could manage the game effectively enough to keep it close. The Patriots are in a transitional period but should be competitive under their new regime. We’ll take the Patriots plus the points, as the Bengals have struggled in recent season openers, going 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four.