Patriots vs. 49ers: Can New England Cover the Double-Digit Spread?
New England Patriots (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2, 1-2), 9/29/24
When: 4:05 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 29
Where: Levi’s Stadium
TV: Fox
Betting Odds
NFL betting odds: NE +10 / SF -10
Money line: NE +400 / SF -550
Over/Under: 39.5
Game Overview
A pair of 1-2 teams will meet when the 49ers host the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. For New England, 1-2 isn’t such bad news, considering the Patriots’ low expectations heading into this season. But for San Francisco, 1-2 is concerning, along with the rash of injuries that have hit the offense.
This is the first game this season involving a double-digit point spread. It’s also one of three games this week with an Eastern time zone team playing on the West Coast.
NFL Betting Line
The NFL Week 4 betting market opened San Francisco at -10.5 over New England, with an O/U of right around 40. Early betting action shaved the hook off that spread.
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Patriots-49ers Betting Preview
New England is 1-2 on the season after falling rather meekly at the Jets last Sunday 24-3. The Patriots gave up the first 14 points of the game, trailed 14-3 at the half, then came up totally empty offensively in the second half and whiffed ATS as six-point dogs.
New England got out-gained by the Jets 400-139 and lost time of possession by a 40:20 split.
The Patriots opened this season with a 16-10 victory at Cincinnati, and they earned that one, outplaying the Bengals basically all day. New England then lost a tough game at home to Seattle 23-20 in overtime, but a case could be made that the Patriots actually outplayed the Seahawks, too.
The Patriots went off this season playing against the lowest wins O/U on the board at 4.5. But if they can continue to run the ball and play some decent defense, we like their chances of going over that number.
San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview
Meanwhile, San Francisco is also 1-2 on the season after blowing a game to the Rams last Sunday 27-24. The 49ers, favored at -6.5, scored the first 14 points of the game and still led 24-14 midway through the fourth quarter. But San Francisco totally botched the last seven minutes, allowing Los Angeles to score the last 13 points of the game to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.
The Niners, even playing without three of their top offensive weapons, out-gained the Rams 425-296. They just pissed the game away.
San Francisco opened this season with that 32-19 win over the Jets but then lost at Minnesota 23-17. San Francisco botched that Vikings game in the second quarter when they came up empty on a 1st-and-goal from the Minnesota 4-yard line, then immediately gave up a 97-yard touchdown.
The 49ers are playing against the highest wins O/U on the board this season at 11.5. But with RB McCaffrey out for a while and WR Samuel, TE Kittle, and now QB Purdy all ailing, reaching 12 wins looks like it might be a tough task.
Recent History
These teams last met four seasons ago, a 33-6 Niners win at Foxboro. Jimmy Garoppolo quarterbacked San Francisco that day against Cam Newton for New England.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 23-24 SU, 20-26 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 29-19 SU, 22-25 ATS.
- Last season The Great Equalizer performed perfectly on double-digit spreads, as favorites played 21-7 SU, 14-14 ATS.
Totals Report
- The unders are 2-1 in Patriots games this season, and they are averaging just 32 total points.
- Overs are 2-1 in 49ers games, which are averaging 47 points.
- Unders are 27-20 in the NFL this season.
Prop Bets
New England TE Hunter Henry, who leads the team in targets with 18 but without a touchdown, is catching +450 to score one TD and +3600 to score two.
San Francisco WR Brandon Aiyuk, second on the team with 20 targets but without a score, is catching +130 to score one touchdown, +650 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
We’ve already played New England twice this season, cashing in when they beat Cincinnati, then just missing with a money line bet against Seattle. We like the Patriots because they will try to run the ball, oftentimes effectively, with Stevenson, and they’ll usually play good defense. If they can get some good play from the QB spot, all the better. Meanwhile, we lost on San Francisco a couple of weeks ago at Minnesota; that one big sequence in the second quarter really hurt. Now the 49ers are really banged up at the skills positions. Perhaps the linesmakers are putting too much emphasis on the final score of New England’s loss last week; 10 points just seems too much here. We’re playing the Patriots, plus the points.
