New England Patriots at Chicago Bears Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 11/10/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 10

Where: Soldier Field

TV: Fox

NFL Betting Odds: NE +6/Chi -6

Money line: Pats +220/Da Bears -270

Over/Under: 39

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A pair of highly regarded rookie quarterbacks clash when Caleb Williams and his 4-4 Bears host Drake Maye and his 2-7 Patriots Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

Williams has shown more success early in his first NFL season, although Chicago has dropped its last two games. Meanwhile, Maye has brought a slight spark to New England’s offense, but he’s still searching for his first victory as a starter.

Can the Patriots help Maye break his maiden? Or can the Bears and Williams reclaim their winning form from a few weeks ago?

NFL Betting Odds

The NFL Week 10 betting market opened with Chicago favored by -7 over New England and an O/U around 39. Early betting action moved the line to -6.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England enters off a tough 20-17 overtime loss at Tennessee. The Patriots battled back from an early deficit, scoring on the last play of regulation to force OT, but ultimately fell to a Titans field goal followed by a costly interception from Maye.

Most bettors pushed on the initial 3-point spread, though late action moved the line to Tennessee -3.5. The Patriots were out-gained by Tennessee 400-295 and lost the turnover battle 3-1, which proved costly in a close game.

New England has now been out-gained in eight consecutive games and out-rushed in six of its last seven. Two weeks ago, with veteran Jacoby Brissett under center, New England managed a last-minute score to defeat the Jets 25-22. This season, the Patriots are 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in games where Brissett played a significant role, averaging 15 PPG. With Maye starting, New England is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS, though they’re averaging a slightly improved 18 PPG.

At 2-7, New England finds itself at the bottom of the AFC playoff picture and may be focusing on building for the future.

Bears Betting Preview

On the other side, Chicago has also struggled lately, dropping back-to-back games, including a 29-9 loss to Arizona. The Bears kept things close early but were worn down by halftime, trailing 21-9 after allowing a late first-half touchdown. Chicago was out-gained 350-241 and out-rushed 213-69 while giving up six sacks.

The Bears started the season 1-2 but rallied for three straight wins before the recent losses brought them back to an even 4-4. They’re now chasing a playoff spot, trailing 6-3 Green Bay by a game and a half for the NFC’s final wild-card position.

These teams last met two seasons ago, with the Bears winning 33-14 in Foxboro. This time, both teams feature new quarterbacks leading a fresh start on offense.

Injuries and Common Opponents

New England’s offensive line is hampered, missing four starters, and their secondary is also thin. Meanwhile, Chicago has several key players listed as questionable, including QB Williams, two starting offensive linemen, and three defensive players.

Against common opponents (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston), Chicago is 2-1 SU and ATS with a net -34 YPG, while New England is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS with a net -84 YPG, highlighting Chicago’s edge in this comparison.

NFL Betting Trends

• Home teams are 70-64 SU and 59-73 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 97-41 SU and 75-61 ATS, with last week’s results going 14-1 SU and 10-4 ATS.
• Teams scoring first are 81-56 SU and 81-55 ATS; notably, Chicago has yet to score first in a game this season.

Totals Report

• Overs are 5-4 in Patriots games this season, averaging 40 points.
• The Under is 5-3 in Bears games, with an average of 40 points per game.
• Overall, Overs are 72-65 in the NFL this season.

Prop Board

• Over on 39.5 first downs is listed at +265.
• A scoreless quarter is listed at +160.
• The “first score” TD/FG ratio this season is 81/56.

Free NFL Betting Pick

We give Chicago a slight edge at quarterback, though Williams has faced his own struggles recently. The Bears have a stronger defense and better performance against common opponents, while New England’s banged-up offensive line could be a significant liability. We’re betting on Chicago to cover the spread at home against New England on Sunday.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 11/10/24

Excerpt for Click-Through Rate (CTR):

Can Caleb Williams and the Bears end their losing skid against a rebuilding Patriots team led by rookie Drake Maye? See why we’re backing Chicago to cover.

Meta Description:

Rookie QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye face off as the Bears host the Patriots on Nov. 10. Betting analysis, odds, and free pick favoring Chicago’s spread.