Panthers vs. Commanders Week 7 NFL Pick – Against the Spread Prediction

Carolina Panthers (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 7
Date/Time: Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 4:05PM EDT
Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Maryland
TV: CBS

The Carolina Panthers come to Landover for a week 7 NFC faceoff with the Washington Commanders. It’s a tough situation for the Panthers, losers of three straight and at 1-5 overall, falling to the Falcons, 38-20, last Sunday. They look for answers this week, but it won’t be easy. Washington is 4-2, coming off a tough 30-23 loss in a difficult matchup last week against the Ravens. Back at home this week, they look to get back to what they were doing under rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Let’s break this one down!

Looking for Something to Salvage with Carolina

After a big game in a win over the Raiders in their only success of the season, it looks like veteran QB Andy Dalton has returned to earth, with some really rough moments these last two weeks. They have some things going for them on offense. Chuba Hubbard has strung together some nice showings this season, with Diontae Johnson showing his chops in the pass-catching department and rookie Xavier Leggette maybe starting to come around. But other than the big game against the Raiders, it’s been pretty slim pickings.

After giving up 108 combined points in their last three games, the Carolina defense is also in a state of crisis. It’s coming at them in a variety of ways. In some games, it’s a passing bonanza. But for the purposes of this matchup, it’s even more troubling how they’ve been doing against the run. Last week, we saw both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier running wild over this group, and that doesn’t bode well with the weaponry Washington has at their disposal with the nimble Daniels, in addition to a deep cast of backs. If Brian Robinson, Jr. is good to go, along with Austin Ekeler getting back into gear, they could do a lot of damage in this spot.

Even so, not all is hopeless with Carolina this week. Their offense can show some occasional pep, so why not here? Granted, the Washington defense hasn’t been bad. Even last week, when a home-Baltimore offense was running wild, they didn’t completely fold. But they’re still not that great, and a lot of times this season, you get the feeling that the massive upgrades and the play of their offense were helping shield some of the shortcomings on the other side of the ball. Also helping the situation look a little better than it may be in reality is that their four wins came against teams that now sit at a combined 7-17. They get some of that same formula this week against the 1-5 Panthers, but with the Panthers getting better than a TD against this defense, this is far from a Commanders’ slam-dunk.

What to Expect

This has the potential of shooting out a little bit scoring-wise. Neither defense is that good, and while both have kept it together on occasion this season, mostly in Washington, you get the feeling the dam can break at any moment. Word is Carolina is sticking with Dalton, who is feeling the heat after two bad games. Urgency should resonate with him, though there is only so much he can do with what he has. Daniels, meanwhile, is getting more comfortable with his targets. Already having established a robust rushing presence with his legs and the three-deep rotation of backs the Commanders flex, we see him connecting more meaningfully with top receiver Terry McLaurin. Other guys are coming into the fold, with Noah Brown making his presence felt, along with the sterling pass-catching work he gets from Robinson, Jr. and Ekeler.

As we’ve seen at points this season, it’s not terribly hard to run the ball against the Commanders, and Carolina surely would love to get Hubbard involved. It starts getting a little tricky if Hubbard gets scripted out of the game if Daniels and this Washington offense get off to a fast start—something that doesn’t seem terribly unlikely. Then you’re left with what’s left of Andy Dalton trying to make it work aerially. And Johnson has proven to be a nice pick-up, but it’s not easy trying to squeeze juice from the rest of the lot, especially when in a game where the points are coming fast and heavy.

I think it’s a tough week for Carolina, a team where you can sometimes catch opponents sleeping, as they are one of the least-threatening teams in the league. Washington coming off a loss and now at home, not wanting to flirt with squandering their big start, is unlikely to grant Carolina the lack of urgency they might need at this point to compete. And the combination of what Washington can do to Carolina matchup-wise, combined with being at home and being in a heightened state of urgency, might create a hill that’s too tough to climb for the Panthers.

Lay the Number

This is typically a spot where you’d almost be looking for an underdog stance, with a still-unproven Washington team that has had it a bit easy opponent-wise, having to cover a robust number at home. It’s just that the opposite side of the equation is so difficult to support. Functionality counts for something, and right now, it’s just not working for the Panthers unless they’re paired with similarly-struggling teams. I don’t think this is a good spot for them. I’m laying the number on the Commanders.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Washington Commanders minus 7.5 points.