Panthers vs. Bears Picks and Predictions: Can Dalton Outduel Williams?

Carolina Panthers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Chicago Bears (2-2, 2-1-1), 10/6/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 6
Where: Soldier Field
TV: Fox

NFL betting odds: Car +3.5/Chi -3.5
Money line: Car +170/Chi -200
Over/under: 41.5

It’s the ol’ veteran vs. the young slinger when Andy Dalton and the Panthers take on Caleb Williams and the Bears Sunday afternoon in Chicago.

Dalton replaced young Bryce Young two weeks ago and sparked Carolina to a victory. Meanwhile the Bears are 2-2 with their young QB, although it hasn’t all been pretty.

The line on this game involves a hook on a key number, which might come in real handy.

NFL Betting Line

The NFL Week 5 betting market opened Chicago at -4.5 over Carolina, with an O/U of right around 43. Early betting action dipped that spread to 3.5 and that total to 41.5.

Panthers Betting Preview

Carolina is 1-3 on the season after falling at home to Cincinnati last Sunday 34-24. The Panthers, catching 4.5 points as home dogs, played the Bengals to 14-14 late into the second quarter. But Carolina gave up a Cincinnati touchdown on the last play of the first half, then gave up the first 10 points of the second half to fall down 31-14 and could not recover.

The Panthers outgained the Bengals 375-373, outrushed Cincinnati 155-141, and won time of possession 31:29. But they also came up empty on a first-and-goal from the Bengals’ 2-yard line on the first drive of the game and later failed on a fake punt, which together cost them at least six points.

Carolina opened this season with a 47-10 loss at New Orleans, then lost at home to the Chargers 26-3. The Panthers then made a change at QB, replacing youngster Young with veteran Dalton, and won at Las Vegas 36-22.

So Carolina scored a total of 13 points in two games with Young and 60 in two games with Dalton. They also got 169 and 121 yards from scrimmage from RB Chubba Hubbard the last two games.

The Panthers, despite going 2-15 last season, ranked 4th in the League in total defense. So far this season, that unit only ranks 28th, but we expect improvement.

Bears Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-2 on the season after beating the Rams at home last Sunday, 24-18. The Bears, favored by three points over a banged-up LA team, fell behind 6-0 early. But Chicago led 10-6 by the half, pushed the advantage to 24-15 early in the fourth quarter and held on from there.

The Bears actually got out-gained by the Rams 322-264 but won the turnover battle 2-0, creating a +7 points differential.

One week after committing three turnovers, Chicago rookie QB Williams committed zero last Sunday. The Bears also got their most productive game so far from new RB Swift, with 165 yards from scrimmage.

Chicago opened this season with a 24-17 victory over Tennessee, although they needed two ST/D scores to do it. The Bears then scored one offensive touchdown in a 19-13 loss at Houston, then lost at Indianapolis 21-16.

Through four weeks, Chicago ranks 30th in total offense and 10th in total defense. Typical, right?

These teams just met back in Week 10 of last season also at Soldier Field, an ugly 16-13 Bears win. Back-up Tyson Bagent quarterbacked Chicago that night against Young for Carolina.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are 32-31 SU and 28-34 ATS this season.

Favorites are 38-26 SU and 28-35 ATS this season.

Carolina QB Dalton is 84-79 as an NFL starter.

Rookie quarterbacks (Chicago’s Williams, Denver’s Nix, and Washington’s Daniels) are 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS this season.

Totals Report

The overs are 2-0 in the Panthers’ last two games (with Dalton at QB), which averaged 58 total points.

Unders are 3-1 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 38 points.

Unders are 33-30 in the NFL this season.

Prop Bets

Carolina WR Jonathan Mingo, who might get increased targets with Adam Thielen out, is catching +300 to score one touchdown and +2400 to score two.

Chicago TE Cole Kmet, with 19 targets over the last three games, is catching +325 to score one TD and +2600 to score two.

Free NFL Betting Pick

With Dalton at quarterback for Carolina, we consider these teams pretty close. Chicago scored three touchdowns last week but still managed only 264 yards. We backed the Panthers a couple weeks ago at Las Vegas because we thought they could run the ball a bit, play some defense and perhaps get some decent play out of the QB spot. And by gosh, that’s exactly what happened. Carolina’s loss last week came as no surprise to us based on the reversal-of-fortunes theory; might they be primed for a bounce-back performance this week? For a game that might well come down to a field goal, we’re playing the Panthers plus the points.