NFL Football Picks

If you thought the Week 3 point spread of 5.5 was low for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup… You weren’t the only one! Read Keith’s full game preview and get his Phi/TB betting prediction here!

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders have played somewhat poorly this season, despite the Steelers Monday Night Football win against the Browns. Who covers the spread? Get Keith’s Pit/LV pick before placing your Week 3 bets!

Miami has controlled the ebb and flow of this divisional rivalry as of late as they have won four of the last five contests between both sides. In the last episode of New York vs. Miami, the Dolphins defeated the Jets 20-12 on September 16th at the Meadowlands. Sportsbook have the Fins favored by a FG to take it again. Keith Franks explains why the Jets are the play!

The Chicago offense was far from great, but they did enough to ensure the win after another dominant performance from the defense. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold was held to his lowest output of the season, finishing 14-of-29 for 153 yards and 1 touchdown, while the Jets ground game was stuffed for 57 total yards. That recipe against the Bills is why sportsbooks have Buffalo as 9 point dogs but can they put up a better game?

Maybe the betting public is again falling for the “Fitz-Magic” deal. As bad as Tampa has played and as well as Carolina has looked, the sportsbooks have reported that the public action so far loves the Buccaneers. 55% thinks that Tampa goes into Charlotte and keeps this game closer than the touchdown spread. 55% is a lot considering the favorite is almost always the way Joe P bets!

Home field advantage in the NFL is not one size fits all. Although there is a general narrative that home field is always worth 3 points, some teams have almost no advantage playing at home such as the 2 LA teams (the crowd in last week’s Rams vs Packers game was predominantly Green Bay fans despite a 7-0 Ram team), San Francisco and Cincinnati. So sportsbooks should price the Saints with a big home advantage right? Well, that stat also means the Rams are adept at playing against the crowd. Keith Allen gives his take and his free NFL pick.

After watching Houston in week eight, I came to a few conclusions. First off, the Houston Texas are good…real good. After starting 0-3, things looked grim for Houston but now they have won five in a row and find themselves in first place in the AFC South Division. Deshaun Watson is heating up and the Houston defense is also starting to come into its own. Even during the 0-3 start, Houston was competitive in all three losses with every loss was a by one score or less. The Texans showed character. Bookies and sports bettors are taking notice.

Sportsbooks have the Patriots just shy of a TD better than the Packers. For the Patriots to trade points with the Packers this week they will need continued success from their passing game, which ranks a 13th in the NFL, same as their rushing attack. Despite rumors they did not make a big splash at the Tuesday trade deadline. They are still well stocked at the receiver/tight end option, but will need an all hands on deck. An under-performing White, Edelman, Gronkowski or Gordon would immediate cause ripples felt throughout the rest of the offense.

The San Francisco defense certainly has its issues. We saw that just last week when it was on their dime where Arizona rookie quarterback Josh Rosen showed the first signs that he’s a real prospect—throwing a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to beat the 49ers. Still, they’re on the rise and should be getting better. Oakland has a pretty good quarterback and some nice weapons like Jared Cook and Doug Martin, who had 72 yards filling in for Lynch for the first game. But with Richard Sherman back, blossoming youngsters like DE Solomon Thomas, S Jaquiski Tartt (questionable), LB Rueben Foster (questionable), and others, the 49ers’ defense can do damage. Sports betting sites have the Niners at -3.5. Can that defense carry the Niners to a cover? Loot has your NFL free pick!

We see an identity starting to form on the Seattle offense. Wilson is a fine quarterback, a real dual-threat guy in an era where that term is overused. Aerially, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are still a big part of the air-game, but we see guys like David Moore, Nick Vannett, and first-year Seahawk Dickson now getting involved. Chris Carson was over 100 yards on the ground, while Mike Davis combines for a nice 1-2 punch. Their run-game looks as good as it has since the glory days of Beast-Mode. Making it all come together is a line that has been playing a lot better. Can this Seahawks offense make up for the Seahawks’ defensive issues?