Packers vs. Vikings Pick: Sunday Night NFL Predictions

Green Bay Packers (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-8 SU, 7-5-3 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, December 31, 8:15 EST
Where: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: GB +2.5 / Min -2.5
Moneyline: GB +120 / Min -240
Over/Under Total: 46.5

It’s a New Year’s Eve football party in Minneapolis as the Green Bay Packers visit their divisional rival, the Minnesota Vikings. This game will have a playoff feel as both teams need to win out to have a chance to get in the tournament while the loser will be eliminated. BOVADA.LV is making the Vikings 2.5 point favorites, setting the game total at 46.5. The play is to lay the short spread and buy a Vikings ticket. Here is the handicap.

Minnesota’s Offense Will Score

The Vikings’ offense sputtered after losing Kirk Cousins, and while Justin Jefferson was on IR, The Josh Dobbs experiment fizzled out, and journeyman Nick Mullens is now giving it a go. Mullens is a poor man’s Jameis Winston who is willing to throw it all around the yard and has done just that in his two starts. Last week against the Lions, the Vikings put their fate in Mullens’ hands, having him drop back 40 times while calling only ten running plays. Fortunately for Mullens, Jefferson is back at 100% and hauled in 6 passes for 141 yards and a miraculous touchdown. Mullens lit up the stat sheet for over 400 yards and two touchdowns, but unfortunately, also threw four interceptions, including one that closed out the game. Minnesota has scored 48 points in the last two weeks with Mullens under center. Alexander Mattison should be fully healthy this week to share carries with Ty Chandler, giving Head Coach Kevin O’Connell a more balanced attack against the Pack. Look for the Vikings and Mullens to continue moving the ball and putting points on the board. The key will be if O’Connell can cut down on the turnovers.

Over the last three weeks, Green Bay’s defense has allowed an average of 29 points to the Giants, Bucs, and Panthers. Bryce Young had his best game of his career last week against the Packers and nearly led a 4th quarter comeback against this defense. Green Bay is in the bottom ten in opponents’ yards per play and has given up the third-most rushing yards. They don’t generate a lot of pass rush, which will allow Mullens time to work down the field. They couldn’t shut down DJ Chark in Carolina, so it’s hard to imagine them limiting Jefferson in the dome. I think the Vikings easily score in the 20s and may follow the Bucs and Panthers and get into the 30s.

We Don’t Trust Jordan Love

Jordan Love had a three-game stretch from weeks 11 to 13, in which he looked like the next Green Bay Hall of Fame quarterback. He led the Packers to wins against the Lions, Chiefs, and Chargers, scoring 79 points in the process. He fell back to earth in the next three games, leading losses to both the Bucs and Giants before narrowly escaping a loss last week against the Panthers. Love is inconsistent with his accuracy, not good with his decision-making making, and can’t put his team on his shoulders when the chips are down. Aaron Jones did return from injury last week and eclipsed the century mark on the ground, but WR1 Christian Watson couldn’t answer the bell last week, and he is the guy that Love needs the most. Green Bay’s pass catchers are all very young, as is Watson, but Watson is the most polished and the most capable of burning the opponent’s defenses. Love needs Watson to be his most effective, but their chemistry hasn’t been great. With Watson sidelined the past few weeks, don’t look for the 2 to be on the same page this week.

While we don’t trust in Jordan Love, we do trust in Minnesota DC Brian Flores. He is one of the premier coordinators in the league, taking mediocre talent this year and molding it into a top-10 defense. They have given up some points in the last couple of weeks, but some of those were attributable to the offense giving up short fields. Seven times this year – including week 8 in Green Bay, the Vikings have held their opponent under 300 total yards. Flores blitzes more than any other coordinator in the league, which will confuse Love this week like it did nine weeks ago. Love needs a clean pocket and an extra half-second to execute, but he won’t have it this week. Throw in one of the NFL’s loudest stadiums, and I expect an ugly day for the Green Bay offense. Love completed just 58% of his passes in Week 8, took four sacks, and tossed an interception. Look for a repeat of the Week 8 contest for Green Bay’s offense. If they don’t get short fields, they will have a long day.

The Spot Favors the Vikings

Minnesota has had their backs against the wall all year and has responded every time. They have dealt with significant offensive injuries but have leaned on their defense while finding a way to score enough points to get Wins. On the other hand, the Packers have been in a position to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff team and then underperformed. Even going back to week 18 of last year, when they couldn’t beat the Lions to get into the playoffs, Coach Matt LaFleur has proven he can’t get his team to rise to these big moments. We have no reason to think that changes this week.

Play the Vikings

Let’s lay the points with the Vikings on Sunday Night. I also like Under 46.5, as I think both teams will lean a little conservative.

Note: Since the article was written, the Vikings have decided to go with QB Jaren Hall. The total has dropped to 43.5, and there is good reason for that. In college, he was very solid in both accuracy and mental acuity, tossing 52 TDs and 11 INTs. He has the ability to run for yardage, with 796 yards on a little under six yards per carry. Inexperience is a concern, but with the Packers’ swiss cheese run defense, I’m still backing the Vikings at home -1.5 and the Under 43.5.