NFC North Battle: Packers at Lions Point Spread Prediction

Green Bay Packers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 14
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, December 5, 2024 at 8:15 PM EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: Prime Video

The Green Bay Packers come to Ford Field for a big NFC North showdown with the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. It works out for both teams in terms of not being stuck with a short week, as both squads played on Thanksgiving. Green Bay moved to 9-3 on the season, scoring their third straight win over the Miami Dolphins, 30-17. They now take to the road against the current top team in the conference in, the 11-1 Lions, fresh off their tough 23-20 win over Chicago. Who should we back in this NFC North battle?

Should We Take Clues from the First Game?

This is the second meeting this season of these two teams, both fighting it out in an outrageously top-heavy NFC North division, in addition to the NFC conference as a whole. There’s a lot on the line, and although Detroit seems to have firm command with the 11-1 record, which is a buffer of a few games, those edges can evaporate rapidly if you lose to the teams behind you. Detroit’s 24-14 win over the Packers in Lambeau on November 3 was revealing in some ways.

After an early Mason Crosby FG, Green Bay struggled at Lambeau when Detroit piled it on in the second quarter and into the third, creating a margin the Packers couldn’t overcome. But if looking just at the stats, you’d be tempted to think the Packers won. Jordan Love was OK, despite not throwing any TDs and one pick. But WR Jayden Reed had a good game through the air, as Josh Jacobs had a good day running. They outgained Detroit and had more first downs, but they were never really in the game. This week, they’d like to see their output result in more points.

Catching Detroit in a Lull

This would be a weird time for the Lions to have less urgency, playing a divisional foe that can still catch them if they get some things to break their way. Still, a lot of effort has been expended to get to this point. After building up a nice lead against Chicago, we started to see some fatigue and perhaps start to settle in a bit, only a clock-management gaffe keeping Chicago from potentially tying the game. And maybe we’re at the point of the season where things become a bit more of a grind for the Lions. The Packers will certainly be going all-out, and if the Lions team we saw toward the end of last week surfaces here, the Packers should be in good shape.

Still, it’s hard to low-rate the Lions. They didn’t catch anyone by surprise this season in terms of being a good team, and even with some tough spreads being applied to their sides, they’re still delivering covers at a 9-3 rate this season. Sure, they looked a little rough last week against a team that has been dealing with a lot of difficulties lately, but against an opponent that can still theoretically catch the Lions, maybe one should expect a little better from them this week at home. In addition, after having that Thanksgiving game at home, the Lions are back there, nice and dug in, awaiting their divisional opponent on Thursday.

What to Expect

I have a feeling neither team is going to benefit much from catching the other team sleeping in this one. I see this as a competitive game where both teams will be gunning hard for the win. I think with the coaching and offensive variety of Green Bay, their urgency will take hold this week. They have a lot to throw at an opposing defense, and they will get some things done. I think the defensive side of the ball is where you start to see the two teams separate a bit in terms of quality, with Detroit’s having been more consistent this season. In recent weeks, we see Detroit just more apt to curb point-totals. It happened in the first game between these teams where we saw Detroit’s defense exploitable in terms of allowing some production but not so giving when it just comes down to raw points.

In a game like this, it’s hard to forecast a romp for either side. I think the Packers caught some bad breaks the first time around that kept them from hitting the scoreboard for the entire middle part of the game that maybe can’t be counted on happening this week. Whether it was the pick-six the Lions got, how many Green Bay drives just stalled out, or how the Green Bay “D” sort of struck out in the area of coming up with big plays, the Packers couldn’t catch many breaks. To their credit, however, the Green Bay defense was stout enough, curbing Jared Goff and the Detroit air-attack, while also preventing getting run over by the Detroit one-two punch at running back with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Take the Points

It’s not easy to go against a team whose very style of play and overall outlook are so conducive to covering spreads, as we’ve seen this season with nine covers already. I just sense this contest will fall more into the category of a tightly contested divisional game where points won’t be flying left and right, where having a cushion of better than an FG might come in handy. In a tough game to call with a lot of moving pieces, I’ll go with the Packers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers plus 3.5 points.