Packers at Jaguars Free Picks: ATS & Prop Bets | 10/27/24
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 10/27/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 27
Where: Everbank Stadium
TV: Fox
NFL Betting Odds
Spread: Green Bay -4.5, Jacksonville +4.5
Moneyline: Green Bay -200, Jacksonville +175
Over/Under: 49.5
Packers Aim for AFC South Sweep
The Green Bay Packers shoot for a sweep of the AFC South when they hit Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars Sunday afternoon.
Green Bay already has victories this season over Indianapolis, Tennessee, and, last week, Houston. A win on Sunday would complete the Packers’ perfect run through their cross-conference divisional series.
Meanwhile, the Jags are coming off probably their best performance of the season, a win over New England last Sunday in London.
NFL Week 8 Betting Odds Movement
The NFL Week 8 betting market opened Green Bay at -4 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 48. Early betting action slid the Packers to -4.5 and bumped that total to 49.5.
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Packers-Jaguars Betting Preview
Green Bay is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS over its last six games after beating Houston at the buzzer last Sunday 24-22. The Packers basically out-played the Texans for about 3/4 of that game but fell down 22-21 late. Green Bay then drove 44 yards to a game-winning field goal by its new kicker, former Jaguar Brandon McManus.
The Packers out-gained the Texans 277-197, but three Green Bay turnovers led directly to 17 Houston points and almost cost the Packers the game.
Prop Bets Performance
On the prop board, Packers QB Love only threw for 220 yards last Sunday, which played under his passing yardage total of 250.5. But his three TD passes paid off at +300. Also, RB Jacobs ran for 76 yards, which played over his rushing total of 63.5, while WR Doubs caught 94 yards worth of balls, which played over his receiving total of 49.5.
Packers Gaining Momentum
Green Bay sat at 2-2 a few weeks ago following a disappointing home loss to rival Minnesota. Since then the Packers won a tough game at the Rams 24-19, then out-played Arizona to the tune of 34-13, then beat Houston.
At 5-2 overall, Green Bay would be the No. 6 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today.
The Packers are also making ground on their wins O/U for this season, which was 10.5.
Jaguars Looking for Another Upset
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 2-1 over its last three games after beating New England in London last Sunday 32-16. The Jaguars, favored at -6.5, spotted the Patriots the first 10 points of the game, then used a 25-0 run spanning the halves to take control.
The Jags, even without RB Etienne, out-rushed New England 171-38.
Jacksonville Prop Bets
On the prop board, Jacksonville QB Lawrence only threw the ball 20 times for 193 yards, which played under his passing total of 235.5. Also, RB Bigsby scored two touchdowns, which paid off at +500.
Jaguars Battling Back from Early Struggles
The Jaguars started 0-4 this season but three of those losses came by a total of 12 points. Jacksonville then beat Indianapolis 37-34, then lost to Chicago also in London 35-16 before winning again last week.
At 2-5 overall, the Jags aren’t out of anything yet, but 3-5 would be a whole lot better than 2-6.
Injury Report
On the injury front Jacksonville lists RB Etienne, WR Davis and TE Engram as questionable for Sunday while Green Bay lists WR’s Reed and Watson and five (!) defensive starters as Q?
Last Meeting
These teams last met four seasons ago, a 24-20 Packers victory at Lambeau Field. Some guy named Rodgers quarterbacked Green Bay that day against some guy named Jake Luton for the Jags.
Packers-Jaguars Betting Angle
Green Bay ranks 10th in the League in average time of possession at 31:27.
Jacksonville ranks 24th in TOP at 28:21.
The teams that won the TOP battle in the NFL were 65-42 SU and 67-39 ATS this season.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are under .500 SU this season at 49-54 and a terrible 41-61 ATS.
- Favorites are 71-36 SU, 57-49 ATS.
- Home dogs are a dismal 9-28 SU, 12-25 ATS.
Totals Report
- Totals are split 3-3 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.
- Overs are 4-3 in Jags games, which are averaging 48 points.
- Totals are split 53-53 in the NFL this season.
Touchdown Props
- Green Bay WR Melton, who could get some reps this week with Reed and Watson questionable, is catching +800 to score a touchdown.
- Jacksonville WR Washington, who could see increased action with Davis questionable, is catching +900 to score a touchdown.
- The “first score” TD/FG ratio this season sits at 62/45.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Green Bay out-played a good Houston team last week. The only reason that game was close was the Packers gifted the Texans a bunch of points. Meanwhile Jacksonville held off the dogs with a win last week but let’s be honest; New England stinks. Also, we expect Green Bay to win both the ground battle and TOP in this match-up, and that’s usually a great way to win an NFL game and cover a spread. We’re playing the Pack minus the points.
