Packers at Bears Best Bet for Week 1
Green Bay Packers (8-9 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2022) at Chicago Bears (3-14, 5-11-1), 9/10/23
When: 3:25 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 10
Where: Solder Field
TV: Fox
Point Spread: GB +2.5/Chic -2.5 (Make the line line GB +22.5 or Chi +18.5 with a 20 point teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)
Total: 44.5
The Packers begin the post-Aaron Rodgers era, fittingly enough, when they visit Chicago Sunday afternoon for a Week 1 battle the rival Bears.
For the first time since 2007, Green Bay opens a season with somebody other than Rodgers at quarterback. Cheesehead Nation can only wish this QB change works out as well as the last one.
Chicago, meanwhile, is looking to advance toward playoff contention this season after winning just three games last season.
Which way are we going here with our free Packers/Bears pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened the Bears as 2.5-point home favorites over the Packers, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Both figures were holding firm in the early betting action.
Packers Betting Preview
Green Bay played 8-9 last year and missed the playoffs for only the fourth time in 15 seasons, with Rodgers behind center. The Packers started 3-1 last season and led the Giants by 10 points at halftime in that game played in London. But a second-half collapse there led to a puzzling five-game losing skid. Green Bay later fell to 4-8, then won four in a row. So all they had to do was beat Detroit in the season finale at Lambeau Field to make the playoffs. Instead, they choked and lost 20-16.
In all, the Packers lost five games last season by seven points or less.
Then, over the off-season came the inevitable; Green Bay traded Rodgers to the Jets, turning the offense over to three-year clipboard holder Jordan Love.
The Packers ranked 17th in total offense last year, averaging 338 yards per game and 15th in rushing at 124 YPG. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay ranked 17th in total defense, allowing 337 YPG, and 26th against the run, giving up 140 YPG.
It’s that last figure that really cost the Packers last season.
Green Bay grabbed Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness with its first pick in the draft, then went offense with its next three picks. But the big question for the Packers right now, of course, is whether Love can produce at this level.
Under a cloud of uncertainty heading into this season, Green Bay is playing against a “Season Wins” over/under of 7.5.
Best Parlays
| 2 Team Parlay | 3 Team Parlay | 4 Team Parlay | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
2.64 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 12.3 to 1 |
 |
2.64 to 1 | 5.95 to 1 | 12.3 to 1 |
 |
2.64 to 1 | 5.95 to 1 | 12.3 to 1 |
Bears Betting Preview
Chicago, meanwhile, is looking to advance this season after winning just three games last season. The Bears started 2-1 last year, with a win over San Francisco and a loss to the Packers. But Chicago proceeded to lose 12 of its last 13 games, seven by one score or less but also several in blow-out fashion, to finish with the worst record in the League.
The Bears ranked 28th in total offense last season at 308 YPG but No. 1 in rushing at 177 YPG. But only 101 of those rushing YPG came from running backs; QB Justin Fields averaged 76 YPG on the ground, running for his life a lot of the time. Meanwhile, Chicago ranked 29th in total defense at 376 YPG and 31st against the run at 157 YPG.
No wonder the Bears lost 14 games.
Over the off-season, Chicago traded the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina for wide receiver DJ Moore and other picks, then used three of its top four choices on linemen, which was probably a good idea for a team trying to upgrade its roster.
The oddsmakers seem to think the Bears will improve; Chicago is also playing against a wins O/U this season of 7.5.
Packers-Bears Recent History
Green Bay owns an eight-game winning streak on Chicago, going 8-0 ATS along the way. Last year, the Packers swept the two games with the Bears by scores of 27-10 and 28-19. But, of course, Rodgers quarterbacked Green Bay in both games. He won’t be around for this one.
Totals Report
The unders played 9-8 in Packers games last season, which averaged 44 total points.
The overs played 10-7 in Bears games last season, which averaged 46 points.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Green Bay can run the ball (without its QB), and the defense should be improved. Also, we’ve liked what we’ve seen from Love, albeit in his limited exposure. Chicago, meanwhile, relies too much offensively on Fields – who’s electric at times but also needs to be helped up off the field too much – and the defense is terrible. We’re a bit bullish on the Packers this season, playing without expectations; we like Green Bay to win this game outright on the money line.
