Oakland Raiders(3-5SU,3-5ATS) vs.BaltimoreRavens(6-2SU, 3-5ATS)
NFL Week10
Date/Time:November 11th, 1:00PM EST
Where:M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
TV:CBS, Direct TV
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: OAK+9/BAL-9
Over/Under Total:46.5
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The Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens kick-off the second half of their NFL seasons, as the year is flying by. Baltimore defeated the Cleveland Browns 25-15 as 3.5-point road chalk, but got out-gained by 8 yards. The Ravens have been out-stattedin fourstraightgames and are now 3-5 ITS (in the stats) this season. The last time Baltimore lost the stats in fivestraightwas back in late 90s. Oakland lost 42-32 to theBucsas 1-point homefavorites. Doug Martintorchedthe Raiders defense for 251 yards and fourtouchdowns. Quite often when a team allows some sort of NFL or Franchise record against them, that team will come back with a much better effort in their next game. I expect the Raiders to do the same.Carson Palmer went 39-of-61 for 414 yards with fourtouchdownsand three interceptions. Palmer has now thrown 168 passes in his last four games, as the Raiders running game continues to begrounded. Oakland hasn’t eventriedto run as they attempted just 11 rushing plays for 22 yards. Lets just hope that Palmer’s arm has something left for this game!
I was surprised to see that the Raiders will bring in thebetteroffense anddefense into this contest. Oakland is averaging 358.5 yards on offense while allowing 369.4 yards per game. On the flip side, Baltimore averages 346 yards of offense while allowing a whopping 386.3 yards per game. When both teams allow more yards than they gain it usually will mean a higher-scoring game. However,this total of 46.5 is the highest Over/Under in the teams head-to-head history. On 1/3/10,the Ravens defeatedOakland 21-13 as 10-point road favorites and the total in that game was just 39. In fact, the last total of 40 or higher between these teams was way backin 1987. That total was 43 points and the game went Under by two. Lets look at the last seven head-to-headmatchupsbetween Oakland and Baltimore. The Ravens are 5-2SUand 5-2 ATS vs. Oakland. The Under is 5-1-1 with an average O/U line of 37.2 points. You see the affect of the new rules which favors passing and scoring. The odds-maker haveadjusted this line byalmost9 points. That’s a lotfor an NFL game especially as theweathergets colderand windier. As of late Monday, the weather forecast calls for calm winds, Sunny skies, and temps in the low 60s. That would favor a higher-scoring game than if the weather would be inclement. With the total set at 46.5, we could have a relatively high-scoring game of 24-21 and still cash the Under.Check the forecast as we get closer to game time.
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The Raiders aresitting at 3-5 and this will be a must win game for them. Darren McFadden left the game against theBucs last Sundayand did not return. He will be listed asDoubtfulfor this game, but the Raiders have become a passing team now. First-year head coach Dennis Allen might be forced to keep riding the arm of Carson Palmer. Palmer has slightlybetter stats than Joe Flacco so far. Carson Palmer has thrown for 2,355 yards with 13touchdownsandeightINTS. He is completing 61% of hispasses and his 85.6QBRis solid. Joe Flacco has thrown for 1,990 yards with 10touchdownsand sixINTS. He iscompleting59.8% of his throws and has an 85QBR. The Ravens have numerousinjuriesof their own on defense with linebackerRay Lewis andcornerbackLardariusWebb out for the year. They needed a big effort last week against amediocreoffense.
Oakland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Baltimore.The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss. The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in week 10. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Under is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 games in week 10.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Oakland Raiders +9 & Under 46.5
The Raiders are 1-1 ATS this seasonwhen playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. I am alwaysleeryof taking teams in this role, but will side with the team with the better offense and defense. Oakland also needs this game more than Baltimore and the Ravens have a big game next week against division rival Pittsburgh.I like the Under based on historical data between these teams. If the weather produces calm winds and mild go lighter on the Under. If you see a windy forecast with colder air, the Under becomes a stronger play. Check forecast on Friday.
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