Nix vs. Rodgers: Broncos vs. Jets Predictions & Picks

Denver Broncos (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 1PM EDT
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: CBS

The Denver Broncos take to the road on Sunday for an AFC showdown with the New York Jets in East Rutherford. The Broncos gave us reason on Sunday to look at them perhaps a little differently, following a 26-7 win over the Buccaneers, one of the more eye-popping results of week three. They look to keep it going but face a Jets team that will be at home, nice, and dug in after a long week that followed a 26-3 win over the Patriots at home. It was their second win in a row, as the Jets and Aaron Rodgers look to keep it rolling against a Denver team that earned some respect last week.

What to Make of the Broncos

Entering last week, the read on Denver was that they had a scrappy defense that could make life hard on any offense from week to week, with their offense being the major drawback. Included in that was the notion that rookie QB Bo Nix looked to have a long season ahead of him. Last week showed that maybe we had been understating both sides of the ball. With two turnovers and seven sacks, the Denver defense was more than merely “scrappy,” really showing its fangs and now having given up 20 combined points in their last two games. And while hardly electric, we saw Nix at least steady the ship, run for his second score of the season, and make OK connections with his receivers, as Courtland Sutton finally had a half-decent game.

With Denver, it’s sometimes going to be a little harder than it seems it should be. They can let their defense do their talking for them while hanging around on offense and hopefully pouncing late. It’s not out of the question that we lead ourselves astray by locking in early perceptions of Nix, who is certainly apt to improve as he gets his feet wet at this new level. At the same time, he’s going to struggle, and a road-spot against the Jets might not be the best spot for him. In addition, he doesn’t have the greatest stuff around him, with no one really cemented as the lead back, along with a receiver crew that outside of Sutton is a big mish-mosh of different guys, none really standing out from the other.

Good Spot for the Jets

After a rough opener to the season, the Jets enter this on the long week after a non-demanding win, having steadied the ship after the awkward season debut. Denver had a nice week, but you couldn’t blame the Jets or their backers for licking their chop a little bit leading into this game. The Jets’ defense has started clicking, allowing a combined 20 points in their last two games. We also see them making impactful plays, with a pass-rush that has reared its head in a major way. After having San Fran’s Jordan Mason go off in week one, they’ve clamped down on the run, which doesn’t bode well for the Broncos and Nix. The Jets might be one of these teams that has trouble breaking into the true elite placement this season, but in spots like this, their defense could have a really big say in things. And it would be a little surprising for Nix, despite showing signs last week, to really blossom in this matchup.

Again, the Jets last played last Thursday, barely getting a scratch in a romp against the Patriots. The Broncos had it mostly their way against the Bucs, but going to Tampa, back to Denver, and then back out to Jersey could leave them a little ragged. The last thing they need is to be softened up before they even hit the field on Sunday against a Jets team that has been at home since week two. Rodgers seems to have worked some rust off after missing all of last season, now starting to flex a nice cast of weapons along with a developing one-two running back combo with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, a legit number-one target in Garrett Wilson, along with a robust cast of other contributors. After not looking so good against Seattle in week one, the Denver “D” has tightened up, but matchups against Pittsburgh and a horribly off-key Tampa offense certainly helped them look better. I’m not sure that kind of defensive stoutness will translate to all spots this Denver unit sees this season.

Challenges for Denver

If part of you likes the understated Broncos and their defense, along with the allotment of points, it’s understandable. Still, with the Jets having cranked up that pass rush to critical levels, you’re going to have a rookie QB back there dealing with some things and not able to get bailed out by a star back or an automatic possession receiver. That Denver O-line has maybe overachieved in spots, but how bankable are they in this context? If you were to name the best skill-position players on the field for this game, you could name off 6 Jets before you get to one Bronco. So, defensive tightness and last week’s showing is nice, but without the necessary horsepower, how far can it really take them?

Lay the Number

In a way, Denver is trying to be what the Jets are hoping they already are. And not to project the Jets as some great team on the basis of wins over Tennessee and New England, but you can start to see the pieces forming. Denver could be sneaky, and last week’s showing in the small window we already have for this season is a cause for concern for Jets’ backers this week. I just see the Jets’ superior offensive pieces and a more-bankable defense as being too much for a road Denver squad to handle this week with the Jets rested and dug in at home. I’ll lay the number on the Jets this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the New York Jets minus 7 points.

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