NFL Wild Card Stats for Totals And Playoff Teaser Fun

In my column earlier this week, I gave stats for Road Favorites in the NFL Wild Card round. For this column, let’s take a look at totals specific to the Wild Card round.

Here’s what I see for the Ov/Un since 2020, the year the NFL changed to its current Wild Card format of six games.

2023/24:
Three Overs, three Unders.
The three Unders were Miami/KC (neither team in the Wild Card round this year), LAR/Det, and Phil/TB (LAR, Phil, and TB playing in the Wild Card round this year.)

The total on the Rams/Lions was 53, the game landed on 47. At halftime, they had 38 points scored but only managed 9 in the second half (THAT sucked for Over bettors.)

The Phil/TB game total was 43. It landed on 41 because the Eagles only scored nine points in the game.
This was the year of the great Philadelphia collapse. They started the season 10-1. They finished the season going 1-5 (1-6, including the Wild Card loss.)

Teams from 2023/24 that are also in this year’s Wild Card round:

Houston (45) vs Cleveland (14), 59 points scored. The total on the Houston game this year is 42.

Green Bay (48) vs Dallas (32), 80 points scored. The total on the Green Bay game this year is 45′.

LAR vs Det, 47 points scored.
The total on the LAR game this year is 47′.

Pittsburgh (17) vs Buffalo (31), 48 points scored. The total on the Pittsburgh game is 43′, Buffalo 46′.

Philadelphia (9) vs Tampa Bay (32), 41 points scored. The total on the Philadelphia game this year is 45′, Tampa Bay is 50′.

2022/23:
Five Overs, one Under.

2021/22:
Two Overs, four Unders.

2020/21:
Four Overs, two Unders.

Four year total:
14 Overs, 10 Unders
That’s a 58% edge for Overs since the NFL changed to the new format, and an 8-4, 67% edge over recent play, the last two seasons.)

Looking at my charts for the various methods I use to handicap games I only have one play that qualifies for a total this week, the Denver/Buffalo game.
My H/C (Hot/Cold Trend Reversal System) says the game stays Under. The record for this play this year was 8-6, a 57% edge, just short of the 58% mark I like to use when I make a buy. With recent numbers pointing to the Over in Wild Card games, there’s no play for me on Den/Buf.

My best play for totals was T1 Overs at 19-10. Unfortunately nothing qualifies this week. The LAC/Hou game missed qualifying by just one point, and though I always recommend not squeezing a game into a fit – it either qualifies or it doesn’t – I’m going to take the Over in this game. But with a twist.
I’m going to use it in a teaser.
A four teamer.
A ten point four teamer.
Crazy? Sure.
Stupid? Probably.
Fun? Definitely! (unless I lose the first game and crap out early, in which case I’ll only have 25% of the fun I’m looking for.)

I don’t like teasers.
Though there are a very select few handicappers who use them and do well, teasers are mostly played by bettors who are losing their money ATS and are trying to increase their edge on the point spread. And even with the improved spreads, they lose anyway.
I don’t have my log book with me but I think I used one teaser in the NFL this year (the only sport where I even consider using one.)
I know I lost one, maybe two?
Whatever. I’m going to make another one for the playoffs because I want to have a little fun/action on the games and I don’t have any strong plays based on my usual handicapping methods.
Also, I worked hard this season on college and pro football, I have a nice profit built up from college (down about two units in NFL) so I deserve a little fun with the profit I made.

First up, LAC/Hou Over 32.
Using this game’s total of 42, only seven of the Charger’s seventeen games would have come in as an Over.
Eleven of the Texan’s seventeen games went Over 42.
Combined, 18 of 34 were Over 42.
Those are not good numbers for an Over.
Hence – the tease.
With the total teased to 32, only four of the Chargers seventeen games would have stayed Under.
At 32, not a single Texans game stayed Under.
Much better numbers for the Over.

In the Wild Card game, the Texans are going to be missing WRs Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, and WR Metchie is questionable, which means Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh can focus his game plan on and double-team, WR Nico Collins. So I’ve got a depleted Houston offense that’s been having trouble scoring, AND they’re playing the number one scoring defense in the NFL, the Chargers.
Again – hence, the tease.

To hit my Over, I need 16 points from each of them.
The Chargers team total is approximately 23, and Houston is at 21. I’m pretty sure I can get at least 20 from QB Herbert and the Chargers, an offense that averages 23.6 PPG, against a Houston defense that gives up 22 PPG (especially since LAC has been a scoring machine as of late, averaging 36 PPG over their last three.)
That means I’ll only need 12 points from Houston. The Chargers defense was not as effective in the second half of season. Over their first nine games, they gave up 99 points, a 9.9 average. Over the last eight games they’ve given up 151 points, an 18.8 average, DOUBLE the amount from the first half of the season!

For my next two parts on this teaser, I looked at the rest of the card, trying to identify a team that’s not going to lose SU.
To me, Baltimore and Buffalo seem to be the best bets to advance.

Buffalo, 8-0 at Home vs Denver, 4-5 on the Road?
And Josh Allen vs. a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, in his first playoff game, on the road?
Gimme Josh and the Bills all day.
I give this game the highest chance for a home team blowout.

And Pit/Bal, Russell Wilson vs Lamar Jackson?
Give me Lamar all day, even with his ugly playoff history. Especially with Pittsburgh on a four-game skid while the Ravens have won four in a row.
Yes, Jackson is just 2-4 in the playoffs, and yes, he’s 3-5 lifetime vs the Steelers.
But Baltimore’s hot and Pittsburgh’s not, and I think this is the year Jackson gets the “Can’t win the big game” monkey off his back.
Then there’s this little nugget I gleaned at Yahoo – the head official for Pit/Bal is Alex Kemp. In 80% of his games this year, the home team won. That 80% sounds like a lot, right? Even more when you consider this – the league average is 53%.

For the fourth part of my teaser, I’m using Philadelphia. I pulled this one from my personal handicapping methods.
WF1 (Wrong Fav) says Green Bay should be the favorite.
WF1’s record on road teams this year is 22-31, a 58% Fade.
And you know I love a good Fade.
And you know 58% or higher qualifies as a buy for me.

Green Bay enters this game after losing their last two in the regular season. And they weren’t throw-away games where they were resting their starters. They were games that had meaning for playoff placement.
Philadelphia comes in off two wins and 12 wins in their last 13.
The Eagles have lost three of their last four wild card games but I don’t need them to win SU, I just need them to stay within five points. In their three losses this year, two of the three have been within five points; the only one that didn’t was on the road at Tampa.

Both QBs, Love and Hurts, have been limited in practice this week with injuries but are expected to play.
These two met once earlier this season, and the Eagles won 34-29.

Green Bay has a top 10 rushing defense giving up just 99 yards per game but they couldn’t hold Barkley under a hundred.
He had 24 carries, 109 yards, and two TDS in the first meeting. Barclay looks like he’s having a lot of fun this year (getting away from the New York Giants can do that for you) and I think he’s going to have a whole lot of fun on Saturday.
And if this teaser goes well, I’ll have a lot of fun, too. And as I said in my very first article here, and many times since, FUN is what it’s all about.

Four Team Teaser 100/+130

LAC/Hou Ov 32
Bal pk
Buf +1′
Phil +5′