NFL Week 9 Betting: Colts at Vikings Pick

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
When: Sunday, November 3, at 8:20 PM EST
Watch: NBC

Betting Odds

Spread: Minnesota Vikings -5.5
Over/Under: 47.0

Sunday Night Football returns to Minnesota as the Vikings host the Indianapolis Colts in a crucial Week 9 matchup. Both teams come into this game looking to bounce back from Week 8 losses, and with plenty of stakes on the line, this game should be competitive and intense. The Colts hope that the return of key starters will provide a boost, while the Vikings are eager to prove they’re still legitimate contenders after two consecutive losses. With both teams needing a win, this matchup should provide a strategic battle, and we break down where to find the best value in this contest.

The Indianapolis Colts enter this game with a 4-4 record, aiming to climb above .500 and keep playoff hopes alive. Injuries have led to back-and-forth quarterback changes, but veteran Joe Flacco has now been named the starter moving forward. Flacco has been efficient in limited action, boasting a 7:1 TD-to-interception ratio and a 102.2 QBR, and he will benefit from the return of Jonathan Taylor to the backfield. The Colts’ offensive numbers remain in the league’s lower half, averaging 340.3 total yards and 21.9 points per game, but Flacco’s connection with wide receivers Michael Pittman and Josh Downs has provided some stability. Defensively, Indianapolis has struggled, ranking 29th in total defense and 30th against the run, though they have managed to hold opponents to an average of 21.5 points per game by tightening up in the red zone.

The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, have looked impressive for much of the 2024 season but are looking to rebound from back-to-back losses. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been a bright spot, playing at an MVP level with 14 touchdowns on the season. Darnold’s partnership with All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson has been key, as Jefferson has tallied 646 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Running back Aaron Jones has also been stellar, providing a reliable rushing threat for the Vikings. Minnesota’s offense should get an additional boost with the return of tight end T.J. Hockenson, who has been recovering from knee surgery. Hockenson’s presence should free up more opportunities for Darnold and also help second receiver Jordan Addison find space in the passing game. Defensively, Minnesota has excelled against the run, ranking 3rd in the NFL, and is 9th in points allowed, though their pass defense sits at 30th, which could be tested by the Colts’ passing attack.

My Pick: Minnesota Vikings -5.5 (-110)

I’m backing the Vikings to cover the spread in this matchup. Minnesota’s balanced offense, boosted by Hockenson’s return, should be too much for an inconsistent Colts defense to contain. Aaron Jones could be a strong prop bet for a touchdown, as he faces one of the league’s weaker run defenses. The Colts’ quarterback shifts and road disadvantage further support the Vikings to win by at least a touchdown in this Sunday night clash.