NFL Week 7 Picks: Dolphins vs. Colts
Miami Dolphins (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3, 5-1), 10/20/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 20
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: Fox
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Mia +3.5/Ind -3.5
Moneyline: Phins +140/Colts -165
Over/under: 43.5
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Two teams dealing with quarterback situations meet when the Dolphins take on the Colts on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis.
Indy got some nice play from 39-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback in the last three games, but it looks like they’re going back to 22-year-old Anthony Richardson this week.
Meanwhile, Miami’s still without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, and the lack of production from that spot is glaring.
NFL Line Moves
The NFL Week 7 betting market opened Indianapolis at -4 over Miami, with an O/U of right around 43. Early betting action shaved that spread to -3.5.
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Dolphins Betting Preview
Miami snapped a three-game losing skid last time out, winning at New England two weeks ago 15-10. The Dolphins then had last week off.
Miami, playing with its third-string quarterback, trailed the Patriots all day. But the Dolphins finally took a lead on a touchdown with four minutes to play and held on by their snouts for an ugly but much-needed victory.
Miami outgained New England 372-299, ran the ball for 193 yards, and won time of possession 34:26. But they also committed a slew of mistakes, including two missed field goals, a blocked punt, and two turnovers. Thankfully, the Patriots are even worse.
The Dolphins opened this season with a victory over Jacksonville, then lost badly to Buffalo and lost QB Tagovailoa to another concussion. Miami then scored three points in a loss to Seattle and 12 points in a loss to Tennessee.
So, the Dolphins have scored a total of 40 points over their last four games.
Miami’s started three different guys at QB already this season; as of this writing it looks like the Dolphins will give former Raven Tyler Huntley another start this week.
At 2-3 overall, Miami isn’t out of anything yet, but they better figure out how to put some points on the board soon, or they will soon be.
Colts Betting Preview
Meanwhile Indianapolis is 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS its last four times out after winning at Tennessee last Sunday 20-17. The Colts, again with the veteran Flacco at QB, drove the opening possession of the game 70 yards to a touchdown but later trailed 17-10 through three quarters. Indy then scored the last 10 points of the game to steal the W.
Indianapolis only managed 269 yards of total offense but held the Titans to just 241.
The Colts opened this season with close losses to Houston and Green Bay, then beat Chicago 21-16 and Pittsburgh 27-24. Indy then lost a crazy game at Jacksonville 37-34, then beat Tennessee. The Colts are also now 2-1 in games in which Flacco took the majority of the snaps, averaging 27 PPG.
At 3-3 overall, Indianapolis would be the No. 7 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today.
As of early this week it appears the Colts will go back to young Richardson behind center for this game. Indy averaged 19 PPG in the three games he took most of the snaps earlier this season.
On the injury front Indianapolis lists RB Taylor, who’s missed the last two games with a bad ankle, WR Pittman and two starting offensive linemen as questionable for Sunday. On the other side Miami lists RB Achane and four defensive starters as Q.
These teams last met three seasons ago, a 27-17 Colts win down in Florida. Carson Wentz quarterbacked Indy that day against Jacoby Brissett for the Dolphins.
Betting Angles
Miami ranks 10th in the League this season in average time of possession at 31:29.
Indianapolis ranks 32nd in TOP at 25:46.
Teams that win the TOP battle in the NFL this season are 59-33 SU and 59-32 ATS.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are just 42-47 SU and 36-52 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 61-31 SU, 49-42 ATS.
Totals Report
- Unders are 4-1 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 35 total points.
- Totals are split 3-3 in Colts games, which are averaging 46 points.
- After going 10-4 last week, the overs are 47-44 in the NFL this season.
Touchdown Props
Indy WR Mitchell, who got nine targets in the two games Richardson played at QB to start this season, is catching +350 to score a touchdown.
Miami RB Wright, who ran 13 times for 86 yards last week, is catching +400 to score a touchdown.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Regardless of who starts or plays, we give Indianapolis our handicapping checkmark in the QB comparison. But from there we call the running games a wash while Miami owns the better defense. So from what we can tell, with our belief that home-field advantage is over-rated, the line on this game should be closer to a pick ‘em. And we like dogs with the better defenses. If the Dolphins could just produce 21 points, they might win this game outright. To be safe, we’ll take Miami plus the points.
