NFL Week 6 Picks: Texans vs. Pats Spread Bet
Houston Texans (4-1 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS), October 13, 2024
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 13
Where: Gillette Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL betting odds: HOU -7/NE +7
Money line: Texans -320/Pats +260
Over/under: 38
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Two teams headed in different directions meet when the Texans play the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.
Houston’s off to a 4-1 start to this season, with a big win over Buffalo last week. Meanwhile, New England, the loser of four straight, is making the change at quarterback, replacing inefficient veteran Jacoby Brissett with rookie Drake Maye. This might be a great idea, considering the success of other rookie quarterbacks so far this NFL season.
NFL Betting Odds
The NFL Week 6 betting market opened Houston at -6.5 over New England, with an O/U of right around 42. Early betting action tipped the Texans to -7 and dropped that total four points to 38.
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Texans Betting Preview
Houston is 4-1 on the season after beating Buffalo at the buzzer last week 23-20. The Texans led the Bills 20-3 midway through the third quarter, then allowed Buffalo to tie it at 20-20 with three minutes left. But the Texans took advantage of poor Bills play-calling to get the ball back in good position, setting up Fairbairn’s game-winning 59-yard field goal.
Houston out-gained Buffalo 425-276. The Texans have out-gained all five opponents this season.
On the prop board, Houston QB Stroud threw for 331 yards, surpassing his passing total of 262.5. WR Diggs, playing against his former team, caught 82 yards worth of passes, beating his receiving total of 56.5.
Houston started the season 2-0, with close wins over the Colts and Bears, then lost to Minnesota 34-7. The Texans bounced back with a last-second win over Jacksonville and their buzzer-beater against Buffalo.
Despite their 4-1 record, Houston has been outscored on the season, 114-102.
Patriots Betting Preview
Meanwhile, New England carries a four-game losing streak into Sunday after falling to Miami 15-10. The Patriots led for most of the day before falling behind by five late. New England nearly scored the go-ahead touchdown, but it was taken away on replay. The Patriots reached the Miami red zone in the final moments but ran out of time.
New England was out-gained by the Dolphins 372-299, gave up 193 rushing yards, and committed 105 yards in penalties.
The Patriots have been out-gained by their last four opponents.
On the prop board, QB Brissett threw for 160 yards, just half a yard short of his passing total of 160.5.
New England opened the season with a win at Cincinnati but has struggled since. After close losses to Seattle and the Jets, the Patriots endured non-competitive defeats to the 49ers and Dolphins.
With only two offensive touchdowns in their last three games, New England will start rookie Drake Maye at quarterback this week. This could be a smart move, considering rookie starting quarterbacks are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS this season.
Recent History
These teams last met three seasons ago, with the Patriots winning 25-22 in Houston. However, both teams have changed significantly since then.
Injury Report
Houston RB Joe Mixon, who has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, is listed as questionable. WR Nico Collins, the league’s leading receiver, is on IR with a hamstring injury. New England is missing at least two Week 1 starters on the offensive line.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 39-37 SU, 34-41 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 49-29 SU, 38-39 ATS.
- Home underdogs are 7-15 SU, 10-12 ATS.
Totals Report
- Unders are 4-1 in Texans games, with an average of 43 total points.
- Unders are 3-2 in Patriots games, averaging 33 points per game.
- Unders are 40-37 in the NFL this season.
Touchdown Props
- Houston WR Hutchinson is +350 to score one touchdown and +2900 to score two.
- New England TE Hunter Henry, who leads the team in targets but has yet to score, is +450 to score one TD and +3600 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Houston is the better team and should win this game. However, the Texans have played close games this season and are favored by just a bit too much too often. They only have one cover so far. Houston is also struggling with the run game without Mixon, averaging only 77 yards per game over their last four contests.
New England is making a change at quarterback, and Maye might provide a needed spark. Rookie QBs have done well this year, and the Patriots could win the ground battle. Teams that win the rushing game are 55-23 SU and 52-25 ATS this season. We’ll take the Patriots plus the points.
