NFL Week 6 Picks: Saints at Texans Analysis & Best Bet

New Orleans Saints (3-2 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 6

Date/Time: Sunday, October 15th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: NRG Stadium Houston, TX

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NO -1 / HOU +1 (Make Houston a +20 underdog by adding them to a 19 point NFL football teaser found at the one and only Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: NO -125 / HOU +105

Total: 42.5

The New Orleans Saints snapped a two-game losing streak in a big way last week by delivering a 34-0 blowout against the New England Patriots in Foxborough. To put it simply, the Saints delivered Head Coach Bill Belichick the biggest home loss in his incredible career. Furthermore, it was the type of complete performance that proved New Orleans is still a force in the relatively weak NFC South. However, the Saints must prove that last week’s success can be sustained, and they will embark on a tricky road trip this Sunday when they face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium!

The Texans let a close one slip away last week with a 21-19 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Texans played much better than I expected on the defensive side of the football and forced a few turnovers. However, the Texans’ offense just could not get enough things going and failed to capitalize on the opportunities. Houston was a dismal 4 for 13 on 3rd downs, and I would contribute a lot of the issues to the running game that was held to less than 3 yards per touch despite 23 carries. This week Houston will have a bounce-back opportunity against the Saints, but I fear the match-up may not be in their advantage.

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Betting Analysis

If you have not watched the Saints in recent weeks, perhaps you were not aware that QB Derek Carr has been playing through an AC joint sprain. Not only is that specific type of injury painful, but it was obvious that Carr was limited in his capabilities in prior weeks. However, Carr appeared to be on the upswing in last week’s victory against the Patriots and was able to stretch the field better. I’m expecting that trend to continue as we reach the tail end of his injury window, and that should bode well for deep threat Chris Olave, WR Michael Thomas, and others.

However, I believe the return of RB Alvin Kamara has also helped this Saints offense as well. Kamara has given the team some balance out of the backfield that defenses must respect. In this week’s match-up, Kamara will take aim at a Texans defense that ranks dead last in run defense according to PFF. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Texans offense will be faced with another difficult match-up against the Saints’ defensive front. New Orleans currently ranks 4th in run-defense, and they have the personnel in the secondary to align with WR Nico Collins and deep play threat Tank Dell. Simply put, I think the Saints can win this match-up on both sides of the ball and have more reliable paths to victory, especially with the run-game advantage.

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends

• New Orleans is 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 games.
• New Orleans has hit the “under” in 10 straight games.
• New Orleans has hit the “under” in 8 straight games on the road.
• New Orleans is 6-3 SU in the last 9 games.
• Houston is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games.
• Houston is 4-13 SU in the last 17 games.
• Houston is 1-8 SU in the last 9 games at home.
• Houston is 0-10 SU in the last 10 games against NFC opponents.

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Betting Prediction

I have been impressed with the progress the Texans have shown this year behind QB C.J. Stroud, and I don’t believe they are going to be an “easy” out for anyone this season. With that being said, I just like all of the match-up angles for the Saints this week and expect them to get the job done. Take the Saints with confidence!

Jay’s Pick: Take New Orleans -1