NFL Week 5 Picks: Expert Predictions Against the Spread

Commandeering a Play on the Commanders: a 68% Trend and 100% Fade

In my NFL article from three weeks ago detailing my play on the Chargers -6 at Carolina, I mentioned the words “Vegas Trap Line.”

I saw and heard a few different bettors/handicappers offer their opinion that LAC -6 was an example of a trap line.
I didn’t bother to correct any of them because too many people are convinced that their opinion is fact.

One time, I tried to explain what goes on in the room when odds are being made and that traps aren’t laid, but I was met with a rebuttal that began, “My friend knows a guy in Vegas who told him” – which is as far as I got before I stopped reading the reply.

I see it being discussed all the time, and I never waste my time entering the discussions. But for readers of my articles here at PredictEm I’ll offer my knowledge on the Trap Line based on my experience from BEING IN THE ROOM and participating when the odds are being made.
Over the course of years, in too many meetings to possibly count, never ONCE was the word “trap” ever mentioned.
Never ONCE was the concept of a trap discussed.
Because it’s simply not how it’s done.

I brought up the point three weeks ago and said that I’d follow up on it in my next article but forgot. I’m reminded of it now because I just read a back-and-forth debate on the topic.

There are enough factors to consider when you’re handicapping and trying to pick a winner. Don’t add to your workload by factoring in myths, such as believing that the oddsmakers are setting a trap line to get the bettor’s money. (They don’t need to.)

Here’s an update on a play I’ve been using successfully across sports, WNBA, college football, and the NFL.
I needed a name for it (for my charts and my articles), so I decided to call it A1.
But a friend of mine pointed out to me that A1 is a steak sauce. And, in my opinion, not a very good one.
If I’m going to name one of my plays after a steak sauce, you damn well better believe that play is going to be called LP, for Lee and Perrins Worcestershire sauce.
Back in 1837, in Worcester, England, John Lea and Henry Perrins created a . . .
Oops, sorry about that.
I digress. Exceedingly.

Records for whatever the hell I’m going to end up calling this play:
WNBA: 3-6, 32%
College football: 5-8, 38%
NFL: 0-3, 0%
That’s a combined record of 8-17, which makes for a solid 17-8 Fade at 68% over a decent data sample of 25 games.

There likely won’t be any more in the WNBA because the lines are too tight in the playoffs. If there is one, I’ll post it in the WNBA forum here at PredictEm (hit my first postseason WNBA bet there last weekend.)

This week, I have two teams that qualify in the NFL, Cincinnati and Cleveland, making my plays Baltimore and Washington.

As I mentioned in my last column, (and unfortunate foray into MLB):
“It’s not hard to figure out why my NFL is not doing well this season. I can’t win if none of my systems are giving me records I can play ON or AGAINST. And here’s what I have:
WF1: Hm 1-3, Rd 6-7
WF2: Hm 5-6, Rd 0-0
T1: Ov 5-5, Un 6-6
H/C: Ov 2-2, Un 1-0

Everything’s sitting at approximately .500, giving me nothing to bet ON or Fade. The only play that’s giving me an edge is the one marked with an asterisk in the pictures of my charts that accompany my articles, formerly known as A1, now it’s “to be named later” as soon as I figure out what the hell I’m going to call it.
It’s 0-3, 0%, and that’s where both of this week’s plays come from.

The Washington pick has the added advantage of being an AFC vs NFC matchup. The NFC is 13-6 SU versus the AFC and 11-5, 68%, ATS.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-6.5
Review: I had Philadelphia -2′.
Not even close, they were never in the game down 14-0 in Q1, lost by 17.
(For bettors who are wondering which was the fluke – the Philadelphia of two years ago that almost went all the way, or the Philadelphia that had an epic collapse at the end of last season, the answer is the latter.)

This week’s plays:

Bal -2′
Wash -3

When to Buy Recommendations:
I expect Baltimore to be laying a field goal by game time, so I bought it this morning (Wednesday.)
Washington is -3, and I see a few houses are starting to tack extra juice on them, so I bought that one this morning also.