NFL Week 3 Picks – RBD’s Spread and Teaser Bets

This week’s plays:

KC -3 -115
LAC +7′ w/SF -1, (-133 to win 100)
Recap: 1-2 last week.

Got a W with the Chargers, laying six they won 26-3.
Lost with the Zeke prop. Not even close.
Took a loss with Denver as I underestimated just how terrible they are on offense.
That play was really a revenge bet against Pittsburgh. As penance, I will write on the blackboard 100 times:
Revenge is not a reason to bet.
Revenge is not a reason to bet.
Revenge is not a reason to bet.
Etc, etc, etc.

I’m 0-2 on props, so I’m not going to buy any this week (Be sure to check out Kevin West’s NFL prop bet picks!) I’ll wait till some more stats are in and I get a better feel for what I’m doing.
I did make two bets already.
From last week’s NFL post, re: the A1 play:

“This play has record of 2-5, a 71% Fade. The Chargers fit those parameters this week.
The 2-5 record is for college football this season. It’s 2-6 in the WNBA.
That’s a combined 4-11, 73% Fade with a 15-game sample.
Will it work in the NFL, too?
Who knows, I haven’t tried it before.”

The Chargers won and covered
So did the New York Jets, who were also in the same spot (I didn’t use the Jets; I liked the Chargers game better.)
It’s 0-2 in the NFL.
It’s 3-6 now in college football.
And it’s 2-6 in the WNBA.
That’s a combined 5-14, a 73% Fade.

Only one game qualifies in the NFL this week . . . Atlanta.
(Four games qualify for college, and I’ll post them in the PredictEm forum.)

KC is off to a 2-0 start
This is their first road game of the season (4-2 on the Rd last year.)
Atlanta is 1-1.
They lost to Pittsburgh at home in their season opener. If Pittsburgh can beat the Falcons at home, I’m betting that KC can beat ’em, too (not much of a stretch, I know.)

Atlanta is off a big upset victory in Philadelphia last week.
There are two ways an NFL team responds to a win like that in their next game – they either use it as confidence booster and build on it, or they come up flat.
Of course, their opponents have a say in the matter, and they couldn’t ask for a worse opponent than the NFL’s best team, the KC Chiefs.

Our sponsor, Bovada, has a great price on Kansas City right now at -3, – 115.
Most books have KC at -3′ with a little extra juice on the +3′. They’ll charge you 15 to 30 cents extra juice to buy off the hook. This makes my point again – you HAVE to have multiple houses to bet at if you’re going to win. If you don’t have an account at Bovada to get the -3, -115, I have two suggestions:
1 – Buy the hook wherever you play
2 – Get an account at Bovada.

For my second pick this week, I’m betting against Pittsburgh.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know what I said about not betting for revenge.
But this isn’t a revenge thing. Really.
I’m not taking the Chargers just because I’m 0-2 against the Steelers this year.
I’m betting against Pittsburgh because I have statistics I like, such as, umm…
I have a system that has a record of, uhhh…
I really think that…ALRIGHT already! It IS for revenge!

But look at it this way – if you could get the 2-0 Chargers and their NFL leading defense against an offensively challenged team like Pittsburgh, at a line of +7′, wouldn’t you grab it?
That’s what I’m doing.
I rarely use teasers, but I’m playing one in this game.
If the opening line of Pittsburgh -2′ was still available, I would tack a hook on it and buy LAC +3. But it’s down to -1′ now because, well, because the Chargers are simply the better team. And Pittsburgh sucks. Despite their 2-0 record, bettors are going to find out on Sunday just how offensively challenged this Steeler team is.
Jim Harbaugh will NOT let Justin Fields run free like their first two opponents did. He’s too skilled at defensive game planning.
Want evidence to support that (as if his time spent at Michigan isn’t enough)?
LAC has surrendered just 13 points in two games, meaning their opponents are averaging less than a TD per game!!!
And now they take on a Steeler team who’s averaging just 15 PPG. (A number I expect to drop this week.)

If this wasn’t their second game in a row on the East Coast I’d take LAC with the +1′ but to be safe I’m going to take them to just over a TD at +7′.
And who am I going to use for the other half of my teaser?
The Niners, or closer to the point, I’m betting AGAINST the Rams.
LAR has a point differential of -37, second worst in the league next to Carolina -60.
The Rams have played two winnable games. They lost both and looked terrible in the process. Even when they were healthy, you could see they weren’t clicking on offense, but now, with Nacua and Kupp out, they’re not going to be able to score enough to beat San Fran, if they score at all.
An already lousy offensive line is missing key starters, and now they have to face Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. Stafford will spend this game in retreat mode, throwing bad passes that land at his receiver’s feet or sail over their heads.
Even without McCaffrey and Deebo, San Fran will have no trouble at all in this one.

Side note: NFC is 7-3 SU vs the AFC this season, and 5-2-3 ATS (if you’re into those kind of stats.)
I mention it because this week there are a plethora (“Pepe, do you know what a plethora is?”) of NFC vs AFC games:
Chi/Ind, Hou/Min, NYG/Cle, Phi/NO, Den/TB, GB/Ten, Car/LV, Mia/Sea, Bal/Dal, KC/Atl (yikes!) Wash/Cin.
I don’t give much weight to NFC vs AFC, but it’s another factor to look at when you’re handicapping this week’s games.

Plays:
KC -3, -120
LAC +7’/SF -1,  -133

Record: 1-4.5
1-0 on Favs, 0-2.5 on Dogs
0-2 on prop bets

Regular Season Wins updates:

Cin Un 10′, +108
The Bengals are 0-2.
I had them at 1-1 after two games, beating the Patriots and losing to the Chiefs. I’m a game ahead of schedule on this one. They now need to win 11 of 15 to beat me, so I really like my position on this one.

Seattle Un 7′, +126
The Seahawks are 2-0. I had them at 1-1 after two games, so I’m behind by a game on this bet.

Pittsburgh Un 8′, -135
The Steelers are 2-0. I had them at 1-1 after two games. I have them with a W vs LAC this week so hoping I’m wrong about that one and can get back in line with my season projection.

NYG Un 6′ -145
The Giants bet is going exactly as I thought it would.  Daniel Jones is stinking up the joint. He’s going to get yanked pretty soon, hopefully I can get a few more losses from him before they banish him to the bench.